What to make of the rise in Ireland’s unemployment rate to 5%
Ireland’s labour market data have been volatile of late. The CSO’s initial estimate of the unemployment rate in June was 4%, subsequently revised up to 4.6%. The latest data now point to an abrupt spike up in the unemployment rate to 5% in July, sustained through the summer. However, seasonal factors may be at play (e.g. school/university closures) leading to a marked 2pp rise in the youth unemployment rate from 11.2% in June, to 13.4% in October. Here, the baby-boom towards the end of the Celtic Tiger era, now pushing up on the number of school leavers, may also be temporarily pushing up on unemployment.
Notably, while numbers unemployed have apparently grown by 26,000 over the past-twelve months to 147,000, there has been no commensurate rise in Live Register jobless claims, up by only 2000 over the same period. Together, these factors suggest the recent rise in the unemployment rate to 5% in Q3 2025 may reverse once the Labour Force Survey (LSF) for Q4 2025 is published in February.
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