Author: Patrick Mullane

UK Infographic – May 2026

We expect that UK GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic May 2026

UK Outlook – May 2026

Growth Outlook Deteriorates Amid Energy Shock We have reduced our growth forecasts due to the negative impact of the US-Iran conflict and higher energy prices on the UK economy. We now expect GDP growth of 0.8% this year and 1.0% next year (versus 1.1% and 1.4% previously). Inflation, which had been easing, now looks set […]

Could Bank of England defy markets and keep rates on hold?

Oil prices and events in the Middle East, are increasingly shaping market expectations for central bank policy. While markets and economists broadly agree on the ECB’s near-term trajectory—expecting two-to-three rate hikes in 2026—there is a clear divergence thereafter: economists anticipate rates will fall back toward neutral levels (~2%), whereas markets imply persistently tighter policy, the […]

Markets taking sanguine view of May 7th local election risks

Markets appear complacent on the risks the UK’s May 7th local elections pose to the sterling exchange rate. Opinion polls point to heavy losses for both Labour and the Conservatives, boosting Reform UK and increasing political uncertainty. Poor results could weaken Keir Starmer’s position and raise fears of less fiscally disciplined policies, particularly if Chancellor […]

Irish housing completions rise to 38,200 in year to March

Today’s Irish residential completions figures show a very welcome rise, up 33% to 7,856 in Q1 2026, ahead of the pace we had forecast. Completions in the past twelve months were 38,200. The striking feature of the Q1 data is that the pace of expansion of house completions (+33% to 5,500 in Q1 2026) has […]

Ireland Outlook – April 2026

New Irish Economic Forecasts We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 1.6% in 2026, followed by 3.6% in 2027. A key reason is that recent data suggest temporary front-running of US tariffs last year (now unwinding) played a stronger role in the 9.7% growth of exports in 2025. However, events in […]

Ireland Infographic – April 2026

We expect GDP will expand by 1.6% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. View the Ireland Infographic Here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic April 2026

Irish government now expects larger €9bn surplus in 2026

This week the Department of Finance revised up its projection for the government surplus to €9.2bn (2.5% of GNI*) in 2026, close to double the €5.1bn forecast in December once the cost of recent energy price supports and other spending is excluded. The explanation is €4.4bn of lower-than-expected borrowing (or larger surpluses) in semi-state bodies, […]

Hopes for new Iran peace talks tempers oil gains

The US navel blockage of the Strait of Hormuz began yesterday. That saw oil prices opening higher yesterday morning, with a barrel of brent crude at over $102 while Asian and European equities fell back. However, claims from President Trump, later in the day, that Iran was reaching out to the US to ‘work a […]

Irish HICP inflation now close to highest rate in the euro area

The news yesterday the CSO’s flash estimate of Irish HICP inflation rose to 3.6% in March was almost exactly in line with our expectations – driven up by rising petrol and diesel prices. However, Irish consumers also have the 3rd highest exposure in Europe to the 80% rise in home heating oil prices over the past month. […]