Author: Patrick Mullane

Irish HICP inflation rate now amongst the weakest in the euro area

The news that Irish HICP inflation at 1.6% in April is now amongst the lowest in the euro area is welcome, but largely reflects that retail electricity and gas price cuts came later in Ireland than in other European countries. In contrast, services inflation rates of 4-5% point to the risks of bottlenecks and capacity […]

Irish household net worth hits fresh record high of €1.1trn

The news that Irish household net worth hit a fresh record high of €1.1trn at end-2023 illustrates the enormous improvement in finances over the past fifteen years since the global financial crisis. Although the Irish household savings rate fell to 10.9% in 2023, households still accumulated €15bn of financial assets, with little evidence the pressure […]

Dollar takes back some ground as US inflation proves sticky

The dollar, which lost ground to the euro over the course of last week, took back some of that in trading on Friday. The dollar rebounded after US PCE data showed that US inflation remains stubbornly elevated and makes it more likely the Fed keeps interest rates ‘higher for longer’. The euro was trading just […]

April Stability Programme Update Published

April’s Stability Programme Update (SPU), published this week, shows the Department of Finance still expect a substantial budget surplus of €8.6bn (2.8% of GNI*) in 2024, driven by a still robust outlook for the Irish economy. Crucially, the Department still believes the unexpected 25% fall in corporate tax revenues in Q1 2024 was a temporary […]

Weak headline Q1 US growth sees dollar tick down

The dollar lost more ground yesterday following weaker than expected Q1 US GDP data, continuing a trend of weak US data this week. The dollar fell to around $1.0730 to the euro, and has now lost more than 1/2 cent this week against the single currency, and to $1.25 to sterling, down more than 1 […]

Dollar and Yen losing ground

There was little change in currency markets yesterday but the dollar is losing ground in early trading this morning. The US currency dipped back on Tuesday but was largely stable yesterday – on what was a relatively quiet day datawise – but in early trading today the euro has broken back through $1.07 to $1.0720 […]

Weak US PMI sees dollar decline

The dollar lost ground to both the euro and sterling, with the US currency not helped by a fall in the April US composite PMI contrasting to an improvement in the PMI in the Euro Area and the UK. The euro rose back to $1.07 while sterling increased to over $1.2450 for a time. The […]

Equities rebound at start of the week

Equities had a good start to the week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.9% for the day, breaking a run of 6 consecutive days of daily loses, and taking the index back to over 5,000. This will be a key week for earnings in the US with a number of major corporates due to report […]

Geopolitical tensions remain the focus

Heightened geo-political tensions will remain to the fore this week. The news that the US House of Representatives had finally passed a military aid bill for Ukraine will mean the continuation of that conflict and should slow recent Russian advances while there remains an increased risk of a wider Middle East War following last week’s […]

Ireland’s rapid pace of jobs growth continues into 2024

This week’s CSO data showing a 0.7% gain in employee numbers to 2.47 million, adds to the evidence the labour market continued to grow rapidly in early 2024. Remarkably, Irish employment is now 14% above pre-pandemic levels. This exceptional performance has been facilitated by net inward migration, although skills shortages and other bottlenecks (not least in […]