Author: Patrick Mullane

Euro takes back a little ground

The ECB decision to cut interest rates on Thursday saw the euro lose some ground immediately post the meeting, down to around $1.0820 to the dollar but the single currency rebounded somewhat on Friday and is back to around $1.0850 currently, still some way off the $1.09 level it traded at at the beginning of […]

Evidence UK inflation pressures easing hits sterling

Markets had expected the Bank of England to lag behind other central banks in cutting rates through to the end of 2025, mainly due to evidence of persistent inflationary pressures. However, this week saw both UK private sector regular pay growth (4.5%) and CPI inflation(1.7%) ease. Hence, investors now expect the Bank of England to […]

MyHome Asking Price Inflation 7.5% in Q3 2024

The MyHome report, in association with Bank of Ireland, was published this week. Asking price inflation accelerated to 7.5% in Q3 2024, a two-year high. Perhaps ever more striking were data showing transactions in September were being settled on average 8% above the original asking price, and for one-in-seven homes, 20% or more above, illustrating […]

Budget 2025 delivers €10bn package

Today’s Budget for 2025 largely stuck to the script. The Government still plans the €8.3bn of spending rises and tax cuts it flagged in the Summer Economic Statement, but also implemented a fresh €2bn ‘cost-of-living‘ package that will hit households in Q4 2024. Income tax cuts worth €1.6bn will also boost disposable incomes at the […]

Dollar takes back a little ground this morning

Dollar weakness continued to outweigh weak European data to push EURUSD to year-to-date highs around $1.12 on Friday afternoon, however we open this morning back below this level at $1.1160 ahead of key data releases in both the Euro Area and the US this week. EURGBP reached a year-to-date low of £0.8325 late last week, […]

Irish economy beginning to feel competitiveness pressures

This week we published new Irish economic forecasts; downgrading projections for both GDP(-1%) and modified domestic demand (2.3%) growth in 2024, but mainly on the back of statistical distortions and volatile data. The bigger picture is that Ireland’s exceptional pace of employment (2.7%) and population (1.9%) growth has continued in H1 2024, ahead of our […]

UK Infographic – September 2024

We expect UK GDP will increase by 1.1% in 2024,  rising to 1.4% growth in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Download the UK Infographic here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic September 2024

UK Outlook – September 2024

Improved short term outlook, longer term challenges remain We have revised up our GDP forecast for this year to 1.1%, from 0.7% previously, on foot of the robust rebound in activity in the first half of the year. Our forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are unchanged at 1.4% and 1.6%, broadly in line with the […]

Ireland Outlook – September 2024

New Irish Economic Forecasts Once again, erratic and volatile national accounts data for Q2 2024, have led us to revise down our forecasts for the growth of both GDP (-1%) and modified domestic demand (2.3%), but tell us little on the health of the economy. In contrast, the recent rapid pace of job creation means […]

Ireland Infographic – September 2024

We expect GDP will contract by 1% in 2024, rebounding to 3.5% growth in 2025 and 4% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic September 2024