Author: Patrick Mullane

ECB now less likely to raise rates above 3%

Despite the fall in Brent oil prices to $98pb this morning and AI-related sell-off in equity markets, investors still see a December 17th ECB rate hike as close to a foregone conclusion, priced in with an 80% probability. However, it is striking the ECB’s October Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) indicated the median expectation was for […]

Dollar loses ground as Democrats take Congress and US policy making set for stalemate

There were only modest moves across FX, equities and oil prices for much of yesterday as markets awaited the outcome of the US elections. For much of the day, the dollar was relatively steady at a little below $1.12 to the euro and a little above $1.34 to sterling. With the election results coming in […]

Oil moves lower on reports of renewed US/Iran diplomatic efforts

There was a divergence in equity markets yesterday, with some stocks rebounding following a sell-off last week, but tech stocks continued to slide. The Nasdaq lost another 1% and is now off 10% from its recent peak, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, held back by under-pressure tech stocks. In contrast, the news that President […]

UK Infographic – October 2026

We expect that UK GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic October 2026

Growth Above Expectations, But Risks Ahead

Since our last Outlook the economic dataflow has surprised on the upside. Consequently, we have upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%. However, the external environment has deteriorated recently. Renewed tensions in the Gulf have pushed energy prices back up, forcing a material increase to our 2027 inflation forecast. We expect the BoE to hike […]

Ireland seen as a safe haven through European debt tensions

Tensions in European bond markets have intensified this week, rioting in France underlining the political difficulty of implementing measures to rein in the budget deficit, expected to equal 5.4% of GDP this year. The yield on 10yr French OATs has now pushed through 5%, the spread against Germany widening to 173bps this morning. Speculation the […]

MyHome report shows asking price slowing to 3.9%

The Bank of Ireland-MyHome report was published earlier this week, showing asking price inflation had slowed to 3.9% in Q3 2026 (from 5% in Q2), to 2.8% in Dublin and to 4.8% in the rest of Ireland. Also, the market is getting a little easier for homebuyers. There were 14,600 properties listed for sale on […]

Euro makes modest gains

With little data out, or much news to move markets, there was not a lot to move the dial substantially yesterday. The euro gained somewhat, with much of the move coming overnight having done relatively little during the day yesterday, and is back to above $1.1225 to the dollar and to 84.8p to sterling. Sterling […]

Sell off sees bonds and equities dip and Euro under pressure

The brief respite at the start of the week which saw a little of the pressure on the euro and French bonds ease reversed yesterday, with the single currency coming up against renewed pressure versus the dollar, which saw it fall back below $1.12 at times and it remains around this level this morning. A […]

Euro gains a little yesterday, but dollar fights back overnight

French yields steadied somewhat yesterday, moving lower again, and are now around 15bps below the 10-year yield closing high of over 4.9% reached last Thursday. That helped the euro, as it bounced off its year-to-date low of $1.1160 on Monday, gaining back a cent to $1.1260 yesterday afternoon. However, much of that move reversed overnight, […]