Category: UK Outlook

UK Outlook – May 2025

Outlook deteriorates amid tariff uncertainty Since our last projections in January the global outlook has unfortunately deteriorated, due in the main to the trade policies of the Trump administration. With uncertainty high we have decided to reduce our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, to 1.0% and 1.3%. Unemployment, which has […]

UK Outlook – January 2025

Growth stalls despite fiscal loosening We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2024 to 0.8%, from 1.1% previously, on foot of weaker activity over recent months. With the outlook for H1 this year looking softer we have also reduced our 2025 forecast, from 1.4% to 1.2%. We expect a rebound in H2 and our […]

UK Outlook – September 2024

Improved short term outlook, longer term challenges remain We have revised up our GDP forecast for this year to 1.1%, from 0.7% previously, on foot of the robust rebound in activity in the first half of the year. Our forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are unchanged at 1.4% and 1.6%, broadly in line with the […]

UK Outlook June 2024

We have revised up our forecasts for GDP growth to 0.8% in 2024 (from 0.4% in our February Outlook) and to 1.4% in 2025 (from 1.2% previously), slightly above consensus expectations and Bank of England forecasts. We expect growth to accelerate further to 1.6% in 2026. The unemployment rate is likely to continue edging higher […]

UK Outlook – February 2024

With inflation set to decline further this year, economic activity is projected to pick up gradually driven by a recovery in consumer spending – with GDP growth of 0.4% for the year as a whole. Growth should strengthen further in 2025, to about 1.2% on an annual basis, while unemployment will remain relatively low this […]

UK Outlook – October 2023

Subdued growth, rising geopolitical risks Download the UK Outlook in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Outlook October 2023

UK Outlook – July 2023

Modest growth ahead, downside risks rising Download the UK Outlook in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Outlook July 2023  

UK Outlook – May 2023

Sluggish growth, elevated inflation. Download the UK Outlook in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Outlook May 2023

UK Outlook – February 2023

Improved outlook, though risks remain. Download the UK Outlook in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Outlook February 2023  

UK Outlook – July 2022

Cost of living squeeze slows growth. Download the UK Outlook in full here: Bank_of_Ireland_UK_Outlook_July_2022