Category: Weekly Round Up

Record Irish GDP contraction masks robust domestic economy

The CSO confirmed today that the record 12% fall in Irish GDP in Q1 2026 reflected just a small number of multinational firms in the pharmaceutical sector. The underlying story is that the surge in exports in 2025, ahead of feared US tariffs, is now unwinding in early 2026. Hence, the Irish GDP growth rate […]

Taking the temperature of the Irish housing market in Q2

Ahead of the Q2 Bank of Ireland/MyHOME report—which we will publish in July and which will set out how asking prices moved ahead of the key summer trading season—we thought now was a good time to take stock of recent developments in the Irish housing market. RPPI transaction price data have had a soft start […]

Ireland’s weak labour market data likely affected by volatility

At face value, this morning’s CSO Labour Force Survey (LFS) is very concerning, employment falling by 0.6% in Q1 2026 to 2.8 million, annual job creation flattening off to zero, and the unemployment rate rising to 5%. However, volatility looks to be at play. The figures suggest full-time employment has increased by 1.5% over the […]

Could Bank of England defy markets and keep rates on hold?

Oil prices and events in the Middle East, are increasingly shaping market expectations for central bank policy. While markets and economists broadly agree on the ECB’s near-term trajectory—expecting two-to-three rate hikes in 2026—there is a clear divergence thereafter: economists anticipate rates will fall back toward neutral levels (~2%), whereas markets imply persistently tighter policy, the […]

Markets taking sanguine view of May 7th local election risks

Markets appear complacent on the risks the UK’s May 7th local elections pose to the sterling exchange rate. Opinion polls point to heavy losses for both Labour and the Conservatives, boosting Reform UK and increasing political uncertainty. Poor results could weaken Keir Starmer’s position and raise fears of less fiscally disciplined policies, particularly if Chancellor […]

Irish housing completions rise to 38,200 in year to March

Today’s Irish residential completions figures show a very welcome rise, up 33% to 7,856 in Q1 2026, ahead of the pace we had forecast. Completions in the past twelve months were 38,200. The striking feature of the Q1 data is that the pace of expansion of house completions (+33% to 5,500 in Q1 2026) has […]

Irish government now expects larger €9bn surplus in 2026

This week the Department of Finance revised up its projection for the government surplus to €9.2bn (2.5% of GNI*) in 2026, close to double the €5.1bn forecast in December once the cost of recent energy price supports and other spending is excluded. The explanation is €4.4bn of lower-than-expected borrowing (or larger surpluses) in semi-state bodies, […]

Irish HICP inflation now close to highest rate in the euro area

The news yesterday the CSO’s flash estimate of Irish HICP inflation rose to 3.6% in March was almost exactly in line with our expectations – driven up by rising petrol and diesel prices. However, Irish consumers also have the 3rd highest exposure in Europe to the 80% rise in home heating oil prices over the past month. […]

Irish CPI inflation likely to rise towards 3.5-4% in March

Equity markets have seen a fresh sell-off this morning as investors have reacted to President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran that he will strike energy infrastructure, should traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fail to resume. At the time of writing most European equity markets are down by at least a further 2%. Despite the conflict […]

Irish house price inflation rises to 7% in January

This morning’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) indicates house price inflation saw a surprise acceleration to 7% in January. However, we still believe momentum will slow towards our forecast for a 4% rise through 2026. MyHome asking price inflation fell to 5.4% in Q4 2025. Also, the average first-time-buyer mortgage approval was €320,000 in January, […]