Category: Weekly Round Up

ECB now less likely to raise rates above 3%

Despite the fall in Brent oil prices to $98pb this morning and AI-related sell-off in equity markets, investors still see a December 17th ECB rate hike as close to a foregone conclusion, priced in with an 80% probability. However, it is striking the ECB’s October Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) indicated the median expectation was for […]

UK Budget: A cautious package with slightly higher borrowing

Chancellor Healey’s Budget aimed to balance continued fiscal consolidation with some support for households and businesses financed by targeted tax measures. Although borrowing is still expected to decline over the next couple of years, higher interest rates and associated debt service costs means that the deficit will be larger than previously projected. The budgetary plans […]

Ireland seen as a safe haven through European debt tensions

Tensions in European bond markets have intensified this week, rioting in France underlining the political difficulty of implementing measures to rein in the budget deficit, expected to equal 5.4% of GDP this year. The yield on 10yr French OATs has now pushed through 5%, the spread against Germany widening to 173bps this morning. Speculation the […]

MyHome report shows asking price slowing to 3.9%

The Bank of Ireland-MyHome report was published earlier this week, showing asking price inflation had slowed to 3.9% in Q3 2026 (from 5% in Q2), to 2.8% in Dublin and to 4.8% in the rest of Ireland. Also, the market is getting a little easier for homebuyers. There were 14,600 properties listed for sale on […]

Bank of England and ECB highlight market curve may overstate likely pace of future rate hikes

Expectations that central banks will be forced into a series of rate hikes have hardened over the past week. The deteriorating prospects for the conflict in the Middle East being resolved, pushing Brent oil prices above $100pb, has been the clear catalyst, bolstered by rate hikes and the hawkish messages emanating from the Bank of […]

UK housing market still in a fragile place

Tuesday’s Nationwide index showed UK house prices broadly flat in August, up just 1.6% yoy, and follows downbeat readings from Lloyds (+0.1%) and Rightmove (-1%) that point to flat or negative inflation. The most recent Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey indicated a net majority of UK estate agents reported falling prices (-30%) in […]

Ireland’s population grew by 1.2% in year to April 2026

New CSO data showed that Ireland’s population grew by 1.2% (67,000 people) in the year to April 2026, reaching 5.5 million. Although this remains one of the fastest rates of population growth in Europe, the 1.2% increase was the slowest recorded in Ireland since 2016, excluding the Covid-19-affected year of 2021. This reflects declining birth […]

LFS may overstate Irish employment growth slowdown

This morning’s CSO Labour Force Survey data (LFS), showed that employment growth returned in Q2, following an unexpected quarterly fall in Q1, with employment up nearly 20,000 (+0.7%), from Q1. Annual employment growth was quite soft, rising by just 0.8%, with falls in annual employment in five of the fourteen sectors. However, there may still […]

Electric car sales rising but still behind longer term targets

This morning’s CSO data showed that new electric car (EV) sales in July were 7,216, up 82% when compared to July 2025. For the January to July period, sales of EVs were up 57% over the same period last year. The rise in fuel prices and continued Government incentives such as the ICE2EV scrappage scheme, […]

Bank of Ireland MyHome report shows fresh momentum in house prices

This morning we have published the Bank of Ireland / MyHome report. Asking price inflation accelerated in Q2 2026, with the national median asking price rising 4.3% during the quarter to €395,000 and annual growth reaching 5.0%. This is somewhat surprising given anecdotal reports of slower house price growth, particularly in the capital. Dublin asking prices […]