Category: Weekly Round Up

Irish housing completions rise to 38,200 in year to March

Today’s Irish residential completions figures show a very welcome rise, up 33% to 7,856 in Q1 2026, ahead of the pace we had forecast. Completions in the past twelve months were 38,200. The striking feature of the Q1 data is that the pace of expansion of house completions (+33% to 5,500 in Q1 2026) has […]

Irish government now expects larger €9bn surplus in 2026

This week the Department of Finance revised up its projection for the government surplus to €9.2bn (2.5% of GNI*) in 2026, close to double the €5.1bn forecast in December once the cost of recent energy price supports and other spending is excluded. The explanation is €4.4bn of lower-than-expected borrowing (or larger surpluses) in semi-state bodies, […]

Irish HICP inflation now close to highest rate in the euro area

The news yesterday the CSO’s flash estimate of Irish HICP inflation rose to 3.6% in March was almost exactly in line with our expectations – driven up by rising petrol and diesel prices. However, Irish consumers also have the 3rd highest exposure in Europe to the 80% rise in home heating oil prices over the past month. […]

Irish CPI inflation likely to rise towards 3.5-4% in March

Equity markets have seen a fresh sell-off this morning as investors have reacted to President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran that he will strike energy infrastructure, should traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fail to resume. At the time of writing most European equity markets are down by at least a further 2%. Despite the conflict […]

Irish house price inflation rises to 7% in January

This morning’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) indicates house price inflation saw a surprise acceleration to 7% in January. However, we still believe momentum will slow towards our forecast for a 4% rise through 2026. MyHome asking price inflation fell to 5.4% in Q4 2025. Also, the average first-time-buyer mortgage approval was €320,000 in January, […]

Who’s right on oil, commodity or bond markets?

The overarching question facing financial markets is whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, representing 20% of global oil supply, can resume in the near future. For now commodity markets have taken a relatively benign view, futures curves indicating Brent oil prices will still fall from $100pb this morning, to $75 by early next year. […]

Irish GDP expands by 12% in 2025

The news Irish GDP contracted by 3.8% in Q4 2025, is explained by the surge in exports that occurred in September, around the time President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals, unwinding. However, manufacturing output has been more stable – indicating a structural upward shift in the level of GDP associated with new pharmaceutical […]

Gauging the economic impact of events in the Middle East

Recent days have seen sharp declines in equity markets, risk aversion and fears on inflation driving significant moves in financial markets. For now, commodity markets see disruption to Middle East energy supply to likely be temporary, futures contracts for oil and natural gas falling back through 2026. However, bond markets have taken a less sanguine […]

Majority of Irish exports still exempt from US tariffs

President Trump seemed to do his best to sow uncertainty this week, see-sawing on whether to impose a new 10% or 15% global tariff. By asserting the new global 10% tariff would be ‘additional’ he was interpreted by some commentators as implying it would be on top of the existing 15% tariff ceiling on EU […]

Irish employment growth accelerates to 2% in Q4 2025

This morning’s Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed that employment rose by 0.5% in Q4 2025, the annual pace of job creation accelerating to 2% (up from 1.1% in Q3). The unemployment rate was revised down again, to 4.6% in Q4 2025, from the 5% initially estimated and declining from 4.9% in Q3 2025. These […]