Dollar firmer following US inflation data
11.11.2026 Daily blogStronger than expected US CPI inflation data triggered a notable reassessment of Fed rate hike expectations, with the market now more than full pricing in a 25bps increase in the central bank’s policy rate at next month’s meeting (Dec 8-9th). This in turn triggered a sharp spike in US bond yields, particularly at the short-end […]
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Weekly Round Up
ECB now less likely to raise rates above 3%
Despite the fall in Brent oil prices to $98pb this morning and AI-related sell-off in equity markets, investors still see a December 17th ECB rate hike as close to a foregone conclusion, priced in with an 80% probability. However, it is striking the ECB’s October Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) indicated the median expectation was for […]
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Global Watch
Global Watch September 2026
The collapse of the ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran in June has triggered a renewed rise in global energy prices. This in turn has re-ignited inflation concerns, resulting in a marked firming of central bank rate hike expectations and a surge in bond yields. The Fed and ECB both raised rates this month, […]
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Ireland Outlook
Ireland Outlook – September 2026
New Irish Economic Forecasts We have revised up our forecast for Irish GDP to a shallower 1.2% fall in 2026 – still contracting as the surge in exports last year has unwound, but followed by 3.1% growth in 2027. HICP inflation is now expected to rise to 4% in the final months of 2026, averaging […]
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Ireland Infographic
Ireland Infographic – September 2026
We expect GDP will contract by 1.2% in 2026 before rebounding by 3.1% in 2027. We expect the domestic economy to expand in both years, with modified domestic demand increasing by 3.8% this year and 2.8% next year. View the Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland Irish Infographic September 2026
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UK Outlook
Growth Above Expectations, But Risks Ahead
Since our last Outlook the economic dataflow has surprised on the upside. Consequently, we have upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%. However, the external environment has deteriorated recently. Renewed tensions in the Gulf have pushed energy prices back up, forcing a material increase to our 2027 inflation forecast. We expect the BoE to hike […]
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UK Infographic
UK Infographic – October 2026
We expect that UK GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic October 2026