UK Outlook – May 2025

Outlook deteriorates amid tariff uncertainty

Since our last projections in January the global outlook has unfortunately deteriorated, due in the main to the trade policies of the Trump administration. With uncertainty high we have decided to reduce our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, to 1.0% and 1.3%. Unemployment, which has been on a gradual upward trend, is likely to continue on that path. Inflation pressures, while likely to rise in the near term, may ebb gradually later this year and next on foot of slower growth and lower energy/import prices. We expect the BoE to cut rates to 3.25% by mid-2026.

Read the UK Outlook in full here:

Bank of Ireland UK Outlook May 2025