Posted in: UK Outlook
UK Outlook – July 2025
Growth outlook broadly unchanged
Our forecasts are largely unchanged compared to our last Outlook in May amidst ongoing global trade uncertainty. We expect moderate slightly below trend GDP growth of 1.1% this year (a minor tweak from our prior forecast of 1.0%) and 1.3% next year (unchanged). Unemployment is set to continue edging upwards to 5% before stabilising. Inflation pressures have proven persistent, but should begin to ebb in an environment of slower growth and a weaker labour market. We continue to expect the BoE to cut rates to 3.25% by mid-2026. The outlook is subject to downside risks.
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