Majority of Irish exports still exempt from US tariffs

President Trump seemed to do his best to sow uncertainty this week, see-sawing on whether to impose a new 10% or 15% global tariff. By asserting the new global 10% tariff would be ‘additional’ he was interpreted by some commentators as implying it would be on top of the existing 15% tariff ceiling on EU exports.

In the event, the 10% global tariff, set for the next 150 days under Section 122 legislation, adds to previous Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) rates (zero in many cases). So many Irish firms will face a 10% tariff, down from 15%, albeit with clear exceptions in the agri-food sector. Global Trade Watch estimate the changes mean Ireland’s effective US tariff rate is now 4.2%, down from 4.9% prior to the Supreme Court decision. Crucially, pharmaceuticals are still exempt, so Ireland’s effective tariff rate is still amongst the lowest in the OECD, with only 16% of Irish goods exports to the US exposed to tariffs.

For some product categories the new tariff will exceed the 15% ceiling agreed under the EU-US trade deal – which may need to be re-negotiated. However, Section 122 does not allow the President to discriminate between countries to conclude trade deals. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said the administration will utilize Section 232 (sectoral) or Section 301 (country-specific) investigations to put tariff policy on a more durable legal footing. However, it may struggle to do so ahead of the 150-day deadline. So a Congressional vote may be required in July to extend the 10% tariff, potentially an unpopular move ahead of mid-term elections on November 3rd.

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Bank of Ireland Economics Weekly February 27th 2026