Irish GDP data for Q2 2025 ahead of expectations
This week’s Irish GDP data saw growth in Q2 2025 revised up from -1% in the preliminary release, to a soft 0.2% gain. However, GDP was still up 17% in the year to Q2 2025. The message from the data is that the surge in exports and multinational sector output in early 2025 not only reflected front-running of US tariffs, but also new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online and past investments in intellectual property assets. Hence, we will need to revise up our forecast for Irish GDP growth in 2025 from 8% currently, into double-digit territory.
However, modified domestic demand, up 4.4% in the year to Q2 2025 is also ahead of our projections, helped by robust gains in consumer spending (3.2%), public expenditure (5.0%)and core investment spending (7.1%). This includes a welcome rebound in investment spending on residential and non-residential construction. So we will need to revise up our forecast for modified domestic demand growth in 2025, from 2.9% currently, towards 3.5%.
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