Ireland Outlook – July 2025

New Ireland Economic Forecasts 

Our new forecast is for 8.1% GDP growth in 2025, slowing to 3.2% in 2026. These upward revisions reflect the surge in exports and multinational output over the past 12-months, but also buoyant consumer and public spending. Our forecast for modified domestic demand has been revised up slightly to 2.9% growth in 2025, held back by weak homebuilding and investment. We still expect the unemployment rate to remain low, averaging 4.2% in 2025, with house prices to rise by 5% this year. Of course, the outlook is especially uncertain. We have assumed US tariffs on Irish exports remain at 10%, with pharmaceuticals exempt. Any change to current US policy on August 1st, or thereafter, would lead us to revise down our Irish GDP projections somewhat.

Read the Ireland Outlook in full here:

Bank of Ireland Ireland Outlook July 2025