Ireland Outlook – January 2026
New Irish Economic Forecasts
We have revised up slightly our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 11.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.8% in 2026. This reflects the surge in exports that occurred last year, which we believe mainly reflected new pharmaceutical facilities coming online. However, a key risk is that exports fall back as ‘front-running’ of US tariffs unwinds, potentially pushing GDP growth into negative territory. Stepping back from Ireland’s volatile GDP data, the bigger picture is that the economy is slowing towards a more sustainable, but robust pace. We expect modified domestic demand to grow by 2.3% in 2026, helped by consumer spending (2.3%), government spending (4%) and construction (6.6%). Employment is forecast to grow by 1.5% this year, unemployment gradually rising towards 5%, with house prices up 4%.
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