Ireland Outlook – April 2026
New Irish Economic Forecasts
We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 1.6% in 2026, followed by 3.6% in 2027. A key reason is that recent data suggest temporary front-running of US tariffs last year (now unwinding) played a stronger role in the 9.7% growth of exports in 2025. However, events in the Middle East and surge in oil prices to $100pb also play a role. We now expect Irish CPI inflation to average 3.3% in 2026, restraining consumer spending to 1.8% growth (vs 2.3% previously). Here, Ireland’s strong labour market performance provides some protection, job creation of 1.8% expected in 2026 with pay growth of 4% and unemployment averaging 4.8%. AI-related spending on machinery and equipment has also led us to revise up our forecasts for investment.
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