High frequency data points to growth in Q4
Last week’s Q3 national accounts showed the robust position the Irish economy is in. The surge in GDP driven by exports in Q1 2025 did not fall back over the following two quarters, as many had expected, and this left GDP growth averaging 16% in the first three quarters of the year. Moreover, the domestic economy continued to do well with modified domestic demand averaging 4% in the first three quarters. With this in mind, now is a good time to take stock of the early data we have so far for Q4. From this, we can see industrial production is holding up in October as are retail sales while services appear to be doing well also. The PMIs for November show Irish business activity in manufacturing and services is expanding at a faster pace than in October and growing solidly. All of this points to a strong economy moving towards the end of year with no sign of a pullback in headline GDP or in the domestic economy.
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