CSO projects Irish population of 5.6-5.8 million by 2030
This week the CSO published updated population projections for Ireland. Population growth in the range of 0.8%-1.2% per annum is forecast out to 2030, or by 6%-9% cumulatively to 5.6 5.8million. In comparison, the IMF’s projections for the twenty euro area countries’ population is for only 0.2% growth per annum through 2023-2029 to 351 million. That said, the CSO’s range of assumptions only envisages a gradual slowdown from the enormous 77,700 net inward migration recorded in 2023. It is possible the tight housing market could serve as a more binding constraint, holding back migration. The CSO’s projections also show the aging of the population, deaths exceeding births by the mid-to-late 2040s. The proportion of the population aged over 65 is expected to grow from 15% currently, to 18% by 2030 and towards 30% by the 2050s, raising the cost for the Irish government of providing health care and pension provision.
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