An uncertain outlook for Irish housing completions
The outlook for Irish housing completions is now especially uncertain. Yesterday’s CSO data showed 6,884 completions in Q2 2024, down 5% on the year, a disappointing out-turn. This suggests the early timing of Easter did hurt Q1’s especially weak figures, but the disruption to housing starts in 2022 from elevated energy costs, build cost inflation and impaired viability, is still being felt. In contrast, fresh housing starts have surged to 33,784 in H1 2024, up 117% on the year, albeit inflated by developers rushing ahead of an expected expiration of a waiver on local authority and water infrastructure charges. Given these uncertainties, it is reassuring the housing component of the Irish Construction PMI was 52.4 in June, pointing to expanding activity for a fourth successive month. So in summary, there are downside and upside risks respectively to our forecast for 37,000 and 41,000 housing completions in 2024 and 2025.
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