Ireland Outlook – October 2025

Irish GDP to grow 10.7% in 2025

We have revised up our forecasts for Irish GDP growth to 10.7% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 (vs 8.1% and 3.2% previously) and also for modified domestic demand to 3.4% and 2.6% respectively. This is because recent data suggest the recent surge in Irish exports has also reflected new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online, not only front-running of US tariffs. Crucially, the majority of Irish goods exports to the US remain exempt from tariffs. Consumer spending continues to grow robustly, but with non-residential construction and government spending making a stronger contribution to demand than we expected. Also, Budget 2026 plans a sharp 8% rise in public spending to €118bn next year. We still expect job creation to slow to 1.5% growth in 2026, the unemployment rate rising to 4.8%. House prices are expected to rise by 6% in 2025 and by 3.5% in 2026 – revised up slightly.

Read the Ireland Outlook in full here:

Bank of Ireland Ireland Outlook October 2025