US bond yields lower, dollar a little softer
There has been a partial reversal of some of Wednesday’s post-election moves in markets, with US bond yields lower and the dollar a little softer though US stocks have advanced further. The Fed and Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates at their respective meetings yesterday, both by 25bps as expected. The euro and sterling are trading at around $1.0780 and $1.2960 against the dollar respectively this morning, with EURGBP largely unchanged at £0.8320, ahead of what is a quiet day in terms of economic data at least.
US 10-year bonds yields fell by around 10bps, reversing a good portion of Wednesday’s spike higher, while 2-year yields were about 5bps lower. Equivalent UK yields also finished lower following the BoE meeting, but German yields ended marginally higher, while both are nudging down at the start of the play today. In equity markets, the S&P 500 chalked up further gains, adding 0.7%, while European equities joined in the rally (having fallen on Wednesday), closing more than 1% higher on the day.
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25bps to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%, as widely expected, noting that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, labour market conditions have eased, and inflation has come down but remains ‘somewhat elevated.’ Fed Chair Powell Powell said the presidential election will have “no effects” on the central bank’s policy decisions in the near-term, as it moves towards ‘a more neutral stance’ for interest rates.
The BoE voted 8-1 to cut UK interest rates by 25bps to 4.75% – a much larger majority than the narrow 5-4 vote to cut in August – noting that ‘there has been continued progress in disinflation’, while reiterating that a ‘gradual approach to removing (monetary) policy restraint remains appropriate.’ This suggests the BoE will skip next month’s meeting and lower rates again at its first meeting of 2025 in February.
As mentioned, it is a quiet day ahead in terms of economic data with the University of Michigan’s latest survey of US consumer confidence and inflation expectations the only release of note.