UK Outlook June 2024

We have revised up our forecasts for GDP growth to 0.8% in 2024 (from 0.4% in our February Outlook) and to 1.4% in 2025 (from 1.2% previously), slightly above consensus expectations and Bank of England forecasts. We expect growth to accelerate further to 1.6% in 2026. The unemployment rate is likely to continue edging higher over coming quarters, before a recovery in employment growth sees it stabilising at about 4.7%. More positively, inflation pressures are likely to continue to ease, though it will likely be late 2025 before both headline and core inflation are back to the 2% inflation target. Declining inflation and a softer labour market means the Bank of England is likely to commence cutting interest rates in a matter of months.

download the document in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Outlook June 2024

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