Ireland still seeing rapid employment growth
Yesterday’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed Irish employment rose by an exceptional 2.7% in 2024. This pace was sustained into the second half of the year, albeit with a choppy pattern of a 1.3% gain in Q3 2024, followed by 0.2% fall in Q4, which is most likely due to sampling volatility in the LFS. That the CSO’s preliminary estimate of the unemployment rate, based off social welfare claims, fell to 4% in January is also an encouraging sign and consistent with positive survey evidence of sustained jobs growth through the turn of the year. That said, with participation rates already at record highs and the positive contribution to labour force growth from net migration (particularly from Ukraine) set to wane we still expect Ireland’s rapid pace of jobs growth to slow to a more sustainable 2.2% pace in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
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