Ireland Outlook – July 2024

We have revised down our forecasts for Irish GDP growth to 1.0% in 2024
(from 1.5% in our February Outlook) and to 3.9% in 2025 (from 4.0%).
This downward revision reflects the multinational sector, where output
continued to contract in early 2024 due to measurement distortions
related to ‘contract manufacturing’. In contrast, indicators suggests
the domestic economy continued to expand at a healthy pace in early
2024. Hence, our forecasts for the growth in 2024 of consumer spending
(3%), employment (1.7%) indigenous sector output (2.3%) and modified
domestic demand (2.5%) have been revised up slightly. We also expect
CPI inflation to average 2.3% in 2024, slowing to 2% in 2025. Our forecast
is for a government surplus worth €8.1bn, or 1.5% of GDP in 2024.

Read the Ireland Outlook in full here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Outlook July 2024