First quarter GDP in US today

The main currency pairs are not much changed this morning ahead of the release of GDP data in the US later today, with the euro trading at around $1.1050 and 88.5p against the dollar and sterling respectively and the pound hovering just above $1.2450 against the US currency

In government bond markets, US 10-yields have ticked up to around 2.45% while equivalent German and UK yields have nudged up to 2.40% and 3.75% respectively.

ECB member Guindos says it’s possible the Euro area economy expanded in the first quarter of the year (a flash GDP reading is due tomorrow) after stagnating in the final quarter of 2022. He also notes that core inflation in the zone – which strips out food and energy prices – is “much more sticky than headline inflation” (which includes both food and energy prices).

In Ireland, there were 6,716 new dwelling completions in the first quarter of 2023 according to data published by the CSO yesterday, an increase of 19.1% on the first quarter of 2022.

The key economic release today is a preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP in the US. The consensus expects the economy to have expanded by 0.5% from Q4 2022 (which equates to an annualised rate of growth of 2%) – a weaker outturn than this could see the dollar extend its recent losses against the euro and sterling.

Other economic data due today include the Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator for April, published by the European Commission, and a flash estimate of first quarter GDP in Ireland