‘Risk off’ day in markets
23.10.2026 Daily blogRising oil prices (Brent spiked to over $113 p/b at one stage), falling equity markets, and a further sell-off in French bonds triggered a flight to the safety of US and German government bonds yesterday. The yen, Swiss franc, and the dollar benefited in the ‘risk-off’ environment that prevailed, with the euro and sterling falling […]
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Weekly Round Up
Ireland seen as a safe haven through European debt tensions
Tensions in European bond markets have intensified this week, rioting in France underlining the political difficulty of implementing measures to rein in the budget deficit, expected to equal 5.4% of GDP this year. The yield on 10yr French OATs has now pushed through 5%, the spread against Germany widening to 173bps this morning. Speculation the […]
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Global Watch
Global Watch September 2026
The collapse of the ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran in June has triggered a renewed rise in global energy prices. This in turn has re-ignited inflation concerns, resulting in a marked firming of central bank rate hike expectations and a surge in bond yields. The Fed and ECB both raised rates this month, […]
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Ireland Outlook
Ireland Outlook – September 2026
New Irish Economic Forecasts We have revised up our forecast for Irish GDP to a shallower 1.2% fall in 2026 – still contracting as the surge in exports last year has unwound, but followed by 3.1% growth in 2027. HICP inflation is now expected to rise to 4% in the final months of 2026, averaging […]
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Ireland Infographic
Ireland Infographic – September 2026
We expect GDP will contract by 1.2% in 2026 before rebounding by 3.1% in 2027. We expect the domestic economy to expand in both years, with modified domestic demand increasing by 3.8% this year and 2.8% next year. View the Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland Irish Infographic September 2026
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UK Outlook
Growth Above Expectations, But Risks Ahead
Since our last Outlook the economic dataflow has surprised on the upside. Consequently, we have upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%. However, the external environment has deteriorated recently. Renewed tensions in the Gulf have pushed energy prices back up, forcing a material increase to our 2027 inflation forecast. We expect the BoE to hike […]
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UK Infographic
UK Infographic – October 2026
We expect that UK GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic October 2026