Economic Research Unit

The Economic Research Unit (ERU) provides commentary and analysis of economic and market events in Ireland, the UK, the Euro Area and US.

The ERU prepares regular reports on the global, UK and Irish economies. Our latest publications are available for download here.

If you would like to get in touch, you can contact the team on economics@boi.com.

 

BoE remains on hold for now

18.09.2026 Daily blog

The Bank of England MPC voted 6-3 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as broadly expected, though a number of those members who opted to stay on hold yesterday indicated they may support a hike fairly soon. The market is currently pricing in a circa 85% chance of a quarter-point increase at the next […]

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  • Weekly Round Up

    Bank of England and ECB highlight market curve may overstate likely pace of future rate hikes

    18.09.2026

    Expectations that central banks will be forced into a series of rate hikes have hardened over the past week. The deteriorating prospects for the conflict in the Middle East being resolved, pushing Brent oil prices above $100pb, has been the clear catalyst, bolstered by rate hikes and the hawkish messages emanating from the Bank of […]

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  • Global Watch

    Global Watch April 2026

    23.04.2026

    The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in energy prices. Inflation will be higher and economic growth lower as a result, though to what extent will ultimately depend on how long energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. While this leaves central banks facing a difficult balancing act, the […]

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  • Ireland Outlook

    Ireland Outlook – July 2026

    22.07.2026

    New Irish Economic Forecasts We expect a contraction in GDP (-3%) in 2026 due to the surge in pharmaceutical exports last year, driven by fears of US tariffs, which has now unwound. Modified domestic demand is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, revised slightly upwards. Our lower forecast for CPI […]

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  • Ireland Infographic

    Ireland Infographic – July 2026

    24.07.2026

    We expect GDP will contract by 3.0% in 2026 before rebounding by 3.6% in 2027. We expect the domestic economy to expand in both years, with modified domestic demand increasing by 3.5% this year and 2.5% next year. View the Ireland Infographic Here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic July 2026

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  • UK Outlook

    UK Outlook – July 2026

    24.07.2026

    New Prime Minister, Similar Outlook We have kept our outlook unchanged for the most part, with a few slight tweaks. The economy continues to face a number of headwinds, including ongoing geopolitical tensions and high/volatile global energy prices. We expect below trend GDP growth of 0.9% this year and 1.1% next year (both upgraded by […]

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  • UK Infographic

    UK Infographic – July 2026

    24.07.2026

    We expect that UK GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic July 2026

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Meet the team

Conall Mac Coille, Group Chief Economist
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Michael Crowley, Senior Economist
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Patrick Mullane, Senior Economist
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Conn Creedon, Senior Economist
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Diane Woods, Economist/Operations Manager
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