Economic Research Unit

The Economic Research Unit (ERU) provides commentary and analysis of economic and market events in Ireland, the UK, the Euro Area and US.

The ERU prepares regular reports on the global, UK and Irish economies. Our latest publications are available for download here.

If you would like to get in touch, you can contact the team on economics@boi.com.

 

Euro on the front foot

04.04.2025 Daily blog

US equity markets fell sharply and the dollar weakened considerably yesterday, indicating investors believe Trump’s trade policy will have a large negative impact on the US economy. The Fed is now seen cutting interest rates quite aggressively over the coming months with about 100bps of easing priced in by the end of this year. The […]

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  • Weekly Round Up

    Trump tariffs deeper and broader than expected

    03.04.2025

    Financial markets have sold off overnight as US President Donald Trump unveiled broader and more aggressive tariffs. Remarkably, China now faces additional tariffs exceeding 50%, with a 20% rate on Irish and EU exports imposed. However, a key development for Ireland is that pharmaceuticals are excluded. This means that 80-90% of Irish exports to the United […]

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  • Global Watch

    Global Watch January 2025

    13.01.2025

    The Fed and ECB both lowered interest rates by 100bps over the second half of 2024 to 3.0% and 4.25%-4.5% respectively. However, while increased concern about the Euro area growth outlook means the ECB seems set to cut the deposit rate by another 100bps this year, the continuing resilience of the US economy as well […]

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  • Ireland Outlook

    Ireland Outlook – January 2025

    31.01.2025

    Irish GDP to expand 4% in 2025 We have revised up our projections for the growth of Irish GDP (4.3%), modified domestic demand (4%) and employment (2.2%) in 2025. This reflects data for H2 2024 indicating the economy had stronger momentum than we anticipated. Also, distortions from ‘contract manufacturing’ have dissipated so GDP should rise […]

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  • Ireland Infographic

    Ireland Infographic – January 2025

    31.01.2025

    We expect GDP will expand by 4.3% in 2025 and by 3.9% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic January 2025  

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  • UK Outlook

    UK Outlook – January 2025

    20.01.2025

    Growth stalls despite fiscal loosening We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2024 to 0.8%, from 1.1% previously, on foot of weaker activity over recent months. With the outlook for H1 this year looking softer we have also reduced our 2025 forecast, from 1.4% to 1.2%. We expect a rebound in H2 and our […]

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  • UK Infographic

    UK Infographic – January 2025

    20.01.2025

    We expect UK GDP will increase by 0.8% in 2024,  rising to 1.2% growth this year and 1.6% in 2026. Download the UK Infographic here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic January 2025

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Meet the team

Conall Mac Coille, Group Chief Economist
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Michael Crowley, Senior Economist
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Patrick Mullane, Senior Economist
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Conn Creedon, Senior Economist
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Diane Woods, Economist/Operations Manager
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