Economic Research Unit

The Economic Research Unit (ERU) provides commentary and analysis of economic and market events in Ireland, the UK, the Euro Area and US.

The ERU prepares regular reports on the global, UK and Irish economies. Our latest publications are available for download here.

If you would like to get in touch, you can contact the team on economics@boi.com.

 

Little change in euro

18.02.2026 Daily blog

With the US having a public holiday on Monday, yesterday really was the kick off to the week and saw a bit more action in markets. The euro made up a little more ground on sterling. The UK currency was softer due to yesterday morning’s weak UK employment data seeing markets price in a bigger […]

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  • Weekly Round Up

    UK CPI and Labour Market data point to March rate cut

    18.02.2026

    Together, yesterday’s UK labour market data indicating the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025 and this morning’s CPI data showing inflation falling to 3% in January, copperfasten the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut at the Bank of England’s March 19th meeting. However, we still believe the market is underpricing the likelihood of […]

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  • Global Watch

    Global Watch January 2026

    21.01.2026

    The US economy has held up better than expected though employment growth has slowed and unemployment has edged up, prompting the Fed to lower interest rates over the final months of last year. We expect it to cut by a further 50bps in 2026, in line with current market pricing. We also see the Bank […]

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  • Ireland Outlook

    Ireland Outlook – January 2026

    27.01.2026

    New Irish Economic Forecasts We have revised up slightly our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 11.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.8% in 2026. This reflects the surge in exports that occurred last year, which we believe mainly reflected new pharmaceutical facilities coming online. However, a key risk is that exports fall back as ‘front-running’ […]

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  • Ireland Infographic

    Ireland Infographic – January 2026

    27.01.2026

    We expect GDP will expand by 11.2% in 2025, 2.8% this year and by 3.5% in 2027. View the Ireland Infographic Here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic January 2026

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  • UK Outlook

    UK Outlook – February 2026

    06.02.2026

    Ongoing moderate growth amidst risks We have marginally downgraded our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts, to 1.0% (from 1.2%) and 1.4% (from 1.5%), reflecting a loss of momentum through late 2025 and ongoing challenges and risks. Unemployment is set to rise more than previously expected – reaching 5.5% this year before levelling off and beginning […]

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  • UK Infographic

    UK Infographic – February 2026

    06.02.2026

    We expect that UK GDP increased by 1.4% last year and will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic February 2026

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Meet the team

Conall Mac Coille, Group Chief Economist
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Michael Crowley, Senior Economist
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Patrick Mullane, Senior Economist
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Conn Creedon, Senior Economist
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Diane Woods, Economist/Operations Manager
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