Category: Weekly Round Up

What to make of the rise in Ireland’s unemployment rate to 5%

Ireland’s labour market data have been volatile of late. The CSO’s initial estimate of the unemployment rate in June was 4%, subsequently revised up to 4.6%. The latest data now point to an abrupt spike up in the unemployment rate to 5% in July, sustained through the summer. However, seasonal factors may be at play […]

November 26th budget may well lead Bank of England to cut rates below 3.5%

Sterling remains under pressure today, at 88p against the euro, close to its weakest level since early 2023. The catalyst was yesterday’s Bank of England decision to keep rates on hold at 4%, but with Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference seen as endorsing the market curve for two further 25bp rate cuts to 3.5% in […]

Irish housing completions rise to 33,000 in year to Q3 2025

This morning’s data show another welcome rise in housing completions, up 4% in Q3 2025 to 9,235 and to 33,000 over the past 12-months. This is the highest annual total for housing completions since 2009. The out-turn shows that overly pessimistic commentary at the turn of the year, that homebuilding might contract in 2025, was […]

Irish housing transactions now settled €30,000 over asking

Yesterday, we published the latest Bank of Ireland, MyHome report on the Irish housing market. Asking price inflation slowed to 5.7% in Q3 2025. This is a welcome sign house price rises are moderating, closer to the current pace of pay growth (5.3%). So the recent deterioration in affordability is easing. Nonetheless, the market remains […]

Majority of Irish exports to the US still exempt from tariffs

President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals from October 1st, albeit with a get-out clause for firms building plants in the United States, has failed to come to fruition. Rather, the White House has confirmed these tariffs have been paused, allowing time for similar deals, akin to that with Pfizer, to be concluded. […]

Dollar to remain under pressure as Fed cuts towards neutral

Last week we published our ‘Global Watch’, setting out our projections for exchange rates and interest rates in 2026. The key call was that we expected the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate to 3.25%-3.5% by mid-2026, continuing to put downward pressure on the dollar so that the €/$ exchange rate will push into a […]

Substantial fiscal consolidation a risk for UK and Sterling

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves faces a range of headwinds that will make it harder to meet her fiscal rule for a current budget balance by 2029/30; recent Labour government reversals on planned welfare cuts, likely downward revisions to the OBR’s projections for UK GDP growth, questionable plans for restrained spending from 2027 […]

Irish GDP data for Q2 2025 ahead of expectations

This week’s Irish GDP data saw growth in Q2 2025 revised up from -1% in the preliminary release, to a soft 0.2% gain. However, GDP was still up 17% in the year to Q2 2025. The message from the data is that the surge in exports and multinational sector output in early 2025 not only […]

EU/US trade statement provides some clarity for Ireland

Last week’s EU/US statement on the trade deal agreed in July provided a little more clarity, but left many questions unanswered. Crucially for Ireland, US pharmaceutical tariffs remain at zero, with the US accepting the 15% ‘all-inclusive’ rate on EU exports will apply as a ceiling, if tariffs are imposed following the current Department of […]

Irish employment at record high

Employment grew by 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Ireland in Q2 2025 taking the number employed to over 2.8m, a new record high. While quarterly growth was very modest, at just 0.1%, this followed a strong 1.1% quarterly increase in Q1. Job gains were broad based, though employment in 4 of the 14 sectors fell in […]