Category: Weekly Round Up

Bank of England holds, March Budget statement up next

This morning’s Bank of England decision to hold rates at 4.5% was in line with market expectations. Sterling rose slightly to 83.6p against the euro following the decision, but with markets still pricing in the Bank Rate to fall to 4% by end-2025. This response was helped by the dovish tone of the MPC meeting […]

RICS points to UK housing market activity softening

This morning’s RICS survey points to softening UK housing market conditions. The rush of homebuyer activity, ahead of stamp duty threshold changes due April 1st, now appears to be cooling off. A majority of estate agents reported falling new buyer enquiries (-14%), agreed sales (-13%) and 3-month sales expectations (-5%). In contrast, new instructions to […]

Irish GDP expanded by 1.2% in 2024

Data released by the CSO yesterday revised up GDP growth in the Irish economy last year to 1.2% (from a preliminary estimate of 0.3%). The data showed the domestic economy grew solidly last year, with modified domestic demand up 2.7%, while volatility in the MNC sector, largely caused by changes in contract manufacturing and intangibles […]

Equity and FX markets buffeted by Trump tariff threats

The sell-off in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 down 4.6% and Nasdaq by 7.5% over the past week, has reflected a range of factors; i) fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, ii) macroeconomic data suggesting the uncertainty is starting to weigh on US business and consumer confidence iii) pressure on tech-firms […]

Ireland still seeing rapid employment growth

Yesterday’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed Irish employment rose by an exceptional 2.7% in 2024. This pace was sustained into the second half of the year, albeit with a choppy pattern of a 1.3% gain in Q3 2024, followed by 0.2% fall in Q4, which is most likely due to sampling volatility in the LFS. […]

Gauging Ireland’s exposure to Trump tariffs

The probability of US tariffs being imposed on a broad range of EU exports in the near future has increased. President Donald Trump has implemented 10% tariffs on China, reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the EU and announced 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminium. European Commission President Ursula von der […]

Bank of England cuts rates to 4.5% as it halves GDP forecast

The Bank of England cut its policy interest rate to 4.5% as expected today. This was despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now expecting CPI inflation to pick-up to 3.75% during the summer of 2025, mainly due to higher energy prices. However, the most striking feature of the MPC’s new forecast was the halving in […]

Irish mortgage market grows to €12.6bn in 2024

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show that Ireland’s mortgage market grew to €12.6bn in 2024, up from €12.1bn in 2023. The growth in the mortgage market came despite flat mortgage lending volumes, instead relying on a 6% rise in average mortgage loan for house purchase to €309,000. Crucially, first-time-buyer lending volumes […]

Irish housing completions fall to 30,300 in 2024

This morning’s CSO data shows a disappointing 8,732 newly built homes completed in Q4 2024, down 15% on the year. This surprise decline in Q4 was almost entirely due to volatile apartment completions, which could bounce-back, whereas house completions were flat. Housing starts data, 60,243 in 2024, paint a very different picture, pointing to a […]

Rapid pace of Irish job creation sustained into Q4 2024

This morning’s CSO release showing employee numbers up 0.2% in November, or by 2.4% on the year, to a fresh high of 2.5 million is welcome news. Ireland’s rapid pace of job creation has continued into Q4. Even if December is flat, employee numbers look set to have risen by at least 0.7% in Q4 […]