Category: Weekly Round Up

Sterling under pressure despite rising gilt yields

Sterling has lagged the euro and other currencies in recent weeks, during the risk-off moves in financial markets as investors have reduced their dollar exposures. This is despite a notable steepening of the UK yield curve, 30-year gilt yields now at 5.35%, their highest level since the late-1990s. This shows UK assets have failed to […]

Risks for Irish economy recede a little

The relief rally in equity markets following President Trump’s decision to delay ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90-days has proven short-lived. Yesterday, both the S&P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq(4.3%) fell back sharply as investors refocused on the substantial US tariffs that remain in place and the potential for US/China trade tensions to escalate. This morning, China has […]

Trump tariffs deeper and broader than expected

Financial markets have sold off overnight as US President Donald Trump unveiled broader and more aggressive tariffs. Remarkably, China now faces additional tariffs exceeding 50%, with a 20% rate on Irish and EU exports imposed. However, a key development for Ireland is that pharmaceuticals are excluded. This means that 80-90% of Irish exports to the United […]

Irish housing transactions see modest growth in Q1

There are now sufficient residential transactions recorded on the Property Price Register for us to assess trends in early 2025. We estimate transaction volumes in January and February were up 3% on the year, modest growth, but merely serving to reverse the 3.5% fall in transactional activity to 61,000 in calendar year 2024. The underlying […]

Bank of England holds, March Budget statement up next

This morning’s Bank of England decision to hold rates at 4.5% was in line with market expectations. Sterling rose slightly to 83.6p against the euro following the decision, but with markets still pricing in the Bank Rate to fall to 4% by end-2025. This response was helped by the dovish tone of the MPC meeting […]

RICS points to UK housing market activity softening

This morning’s RICS survey points to softening UK housing market conditions. The rush of homebuyer activity, ahead of stamp duty threshold changes due April 1st, now appears to be cooling off. A majority of estate agents reported falling new buyer enquiries (-14%), agreed sales (-13%) and 3-month sales expectations (-5%). In contrast, new instructions to […]

Irish GDP expanded by 1.2% in 2024

Data released by the CSO yesterday revised up GDP growth in the Irish economy last year to 1.2% (from a preliminary estimate of 0.3%). The data showed the domestic economy grew solidly last year, with modified domestic demand up 2.7%, while volatility in the MNC sector, largely caused by changes in contract manufacturing and intangibles […]

Equity and FX markets buffeted by Trump tariff threats

The sell-off in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 down 4.6% and Nasdaq by 7.5% over the past week, has reflected a range of factors; i) fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, ii) macroeconomic data suggesting the uncertainty is starting to weigh on US business and consumer confidence iii) pressure on tech-firms […]

Ireland still seeing rapid employment growth

Yesterday’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed Irish employment rose by an exceptional 2.7% in 2024. This pace was sustained into the second half of the year, albeit with a choppy pattern of a 1.3% gain in Q3 2024, followed by 0.2% fall in Q4, which is most likely due to sampling volatility in the LFS. […]

Gauging Ireland’s exposure to Trump tariffs

The probability of US tariffs being imposed on a broad range of EU exports in the near future has increased. President Donald Trump has implemented 10% tariffs on China, reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the EU and announced 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminium. European Commission President Ursula von der […]