Category: Weekly Round Up

Majority of Irish exports to the US still exempt from tariffs

President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals from October 1st, albeit with a get-out clause for firms building plants in the United States, has failed to come to fruition. Rather, the White House has confirmed these tariffs have been paused, allowing time for similar deals, akin to that with Pfizer, to be concluded. […]

Dollar to remain under pressure as Fed cuts towards neutral

Last week we published our ‘Global Watch’, setting out our projections for exchange rates and interest rates in 2026. The key call was that we expected the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate to 3.25%-3.5% by mid-2026, continuing to put downward pressure on the dollar so that the €/$ exchange rate will push into a […]

Substantial fiscal consolidation a risk for UK and Sterling

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves faces a range of headwinds that will make it harder to meet her fiscal rule for a current budget balance by 2029/30; recent Labour government reversals on planned welfare cuts, likely downward revisions to the OBR’s projections for UK GDP growth, questionable plans for restrained spending from 2027 […]

Irish GDP data for Q2 2025 ahead of expectations

This week’s Irish GDP data saw growth in Q2 2025 revised up from -1% in the preliminary release, to a soft 0.2% gain. However, GDP was still up 17% in the year to Q2 2025. The message from the data is that the surge in exports and multinational sector output in early 2025 not only […]

EU/US trade statement provides some clarity for Ireland

Last week’s EU/US statement on the trade deal agreed in July provided a little more clarity, but left many questions unanswered. Crucially for Ireland, US pharmaceutical tariffs remain at zero, with the US accepting the 15% ‘all-inclusive’ rate on EU exports will apply as a ceiling, if tariffs are imposed following the current Department of […]

Irish employment at record high

Employment grew by 2.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Ireland in Q2 2025 taking the number employed to over 2.8m, a new record high. While quarterly growth was very modest, at just 0.1%, this followed a strong 1.1% quarterly increase in Q1. Job gains were broad based, though employment in 4 of the 14 sectors fell in […]

UK Labour Market Loosens Further, Q2 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

This week the ONS published labour market and GDP data for Q2. Unemployment came in at 4.7%, up from 4.5% in Q1, reflecting ongoing subdued jobs growth, while pay growth decelerated further. The GDP data surprised slightly on the upside – most analysts were expecting a quarterly gain of only 0.1% in Q2 while in […]

Spending on Bank of Ireland Credit/Debit Cards up 6.4% in July

This month’s Bank of Ireland credit/debit card data shows consumer spending expanding at a healthy pace of 6.4% year-on-year in July 2025, similar to May and June. Spending growth remains well above the rate of inflation, which came in at 1.7% in July. Growth was broad based across Retail, Services and Social sectors. Most other […]

Implications for Ireland of EU/US trade deal still unclear

European Commission and White House statements yesterday provided a little more clarity on the EU/US trade deal, but still leave many aspects uncertain. Key for Ireland is that pharmaceutical tariffs of 15% do not look set to apply immediately from August 1st, but rather will follow the conclusion of the US administrations’ Section 232 investigation […]

Housing completions bounce back to 16-year high

This morning’s CSO data show that there were 9,214 residential completions in Q2 2025, up 35% on the year. This brings completions to 32,717 over the past 12-months, the highest level since2009. The disappointing 30,200 out-turn in 2024 was primarily due to volatile, lumpy apartment completions figures, which bounced back in Q2. The bigger picture […]