Category: Weekly Round Up

Bank of England signals rate cuts to come in 2026

Today’s Bank of England decision to keep rates on hold at 3.75% was in line with expectations, but the tone of the minutes and press conference was not, indicating that the Bank rate was likely to be reduced further, and dropping the reference to gradual cuts. The Bank revised down it’s projection for UK GDP […]

Irish mortgage market grows to €14.5bn in 2025

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show Ireland’s mortgage market grew to €14.5bn in 2025, up 15% on the year, split between €12.3bn of loans for house purchase and €2.2bn of top-up/re-mortgaging activity. The expansion was driven by house price inflation, the average mortgage loan up 7% to €332,000 in 2025. Also, […]

Bank of Ireland Card Spending up 5.7% in December

The latest Bank of Ireland credit/debit card data show spending was up 5.7% in December, still ahead of CPI inflation at 3.2% (November), indicating real price adjusted spending growth by Irish households. The 2025 Christmas season had consumers out in force with spending in all the main categories up on December of 2024. Spending in […]

High frequency data points to growth in Q4

Last week’s Q3 national accounts showed the robust position the Irish economy is in. The surge in GDP driven by exports in Q1 2025 did not fall back over the following two quarters, as many had expected, and this left GDP growth averaging 16% in the first three quarters of the year. Moreover, the domestic […]

Irish GDP continues to outperform

Irish GDP fell by just 0.3% in Q3 2025, leaving the annual increase at 10.8%. GDP surged in Q12025, driven by front running of tariffs and new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online, and it had been expected that GDP would fall back somewhat over the rest of 2025. However, multinational sector output and exports have […]

UK Budget delays tax hikes but difficult questions unanswered

Today’s UK Budget put-off difficult tax increases until late-on in the life of the parliament. The plan to gradually reduce public sector borrowing to 1.9% of GDP by 2029/30 still relies on relatively optimistic assumptions on UK GDP growth and that the Labour government sticks to spending restraint in the run-up to the next general […]

Irish employment growth slows

Employment grew by 1.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Ireland in Q3 2025 taking the number employed to over 2.825m, a new record high. However, quarterly growth was very modest, at just 0.1%. This means that following solid jobs growth in Q1, employment has been more or less flat for the past two quarters. While there were […]

What to make of the rise in Ireland’s unemployment rate to 5%

Ireland’s labour market data have been volatile of late. The CSO’s initial estimate of the unemployment rate in June was 4%, subsequently revised up to 4.6%. The latest data now point to an abrupt spike up in the unemployment rate to 5% in July, sustained through the summer. However, seasonal factors may be at play […]

November 26th budget may well lead Bank of England to cut rates below 3.5%

Sterling remains under pressure today, at 88p against the euro, close to its weakest level since early 2023. The catalyst was yesterday’s Bank of England decision to keep rates on hold at 4%, but with Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference seen as endorsing the market curve for two further 25bp rate cuts to 3.5% in […]

Irish housing completions rise to 33,000 in year to Q3 2025

This morning’s data show another welcome rise in housing completions, up 4% in Q3 2025 to 9,235 and to 33,000 over the past 12-months. This is the highest annual total for housing completions since 2009. The out-turn shows that overly pessimistic commentary at the turn of the year, that homebuilding might contract in 2025, was […]