Category: Weekly Round Up

Euro-Dollar pushes through $1.15 on trade/deficit fears

A key call in our May ‘Global Market Watch’ was that the dollar would depreciate to trade in a$1.15-$1.20 range against the euro by the final quarter of 2025. This week the exchange rate pushed into this range, earlier than expected, reflecting concerns on US tariffs, the Federal debt/deficit and the administration’s dollar policy. Specifically, […]

Card spending in May up 6.5% on the year

This morning’s Bank of Ireland credit/debit card data shows consumer spending still growing at a robust 6.5% pace in May, to €3.9bn, still well above the 2% rate of CPI inflation and exhibiting no signs of faltering due to uncertainty related to US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. There was broad based growth across retail […]

Irish unemployment rate falls to fresh low of 4%

Last week’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed that Irish employment growth continued at a rapid 3% pace in Q1 2025, with the unemployment rate falling to a fresh 24-year low of 4.0%. The data show that the labour market continues to tighten, evident in pay growth of 5% through 2024. This is despite labour supply […]

Still expecting dollar to depreciate over the medium-term

US financial markets have seen a remarkable rebound in May, as signs of progress in trade negotiations and a more conciliatory approach from the White House has emerged. The dollar has appreciated to $1.12 against the euro, vs a $1.15 peak in April. However, the Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariffs, and 30% on China, remain […]

April dip in Irish business and consumer confidence not yet sufficient to delay key spending decisions

The past week has seen a flurry of surveys on Irish business and consumer confidence in April ,helping to gauge the impact of US tariff related uncertainty. Sentiment has clearly taken a hit. Irish consumer confidence fell to a 2-year low in April but remains well above the previous trough in 2022 when CPI inflation […]

Housing completions see marginal 2% growth in Q1 2025

This morning’s CSO data show residential dwellings completions were 5,938 in the first quarter of 2025, up 2% on the year. Whilst a marginal improvement, the completions data have clearly not accelerated in line with the surge in commencements to 69,000 in 2024, artificially inflated by developers rushing to take advantage of temporary waivers on […]

Sterling under pressure despite rising gilt yields

Sterling has lagged the euro and other currencies in recent weeks, during the risk-off moves in financial markets as investors have reduced their dollar exposures. This is despite a notable steepening of the UK yield curve, 30-year gilt yields now at 5.35%, their highest level since the late-1990s. This shows UK assets have failed to […]

Risks for Irish economy recede a little

The relief rally in equity markets following President Trump’s decision to delay ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90-days has proven short-lived. Yesterday, both the S&P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq(4.3%) fell back sharply as investors refocused on the substantial US tariffs that remain in place and the potential for US/China trade tensions to escalate. This morning, China has […]

Trump tariffs deeper and broader than expected

Financial markets have sold off overnight as US President Donald Trump unveiled broader and more aggressive tariffs. Remarkably, China now faces additional tariffs exceeding 50%, with a 20% rate on Irish and EU exports imposed. However, a key development for Ireland is that pharmaceuticals are excluded. This means that 80-90% of Irish exports to the United […]

Irish housing transactions see modest growth in Q1

There are now sufficient residential transactions recorded on the Property Price Register for us to assess trends in early 2025. We estimate transaction volumes in January and February were up 3% on the year, modest growth, but merely serving to reverse the 3.5% fall in transactional activity to 61,000 in calendar year 2024. The underlying […]