Category: Weekly Round Up

Majority of Irish exports still exempt from US tariffs

President Trump seemed to do his best to sow uncertainty this week, see-sawing on whether to impose a new 10% or 15% global tariff. By asserting the new global 10% tariff would be ‘additional’ he was interpreted by some commentators as implying it would be on top of the existing 15% tariff ceiling on EU […]

Irish employment growth accelerates to 2% in Q4 2025

This morning’s Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed that employment rose by 0.5% in Q4 2025, the annual pace of job creation accelerating to 2% (up from 1.1% in Q3). The unemployment rate was revised down again, to 4.6% in Q4 2025, from the 5% initially estimated and declining from 4.9% in Q3 2025. These […]

UK CPI and Labour Market data point to March rate cut

Together, yesterday’s UK labour market data indicating the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025 and this morning’s CPI data showing inflation falling to 3% in January, copperfasten the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut at the Bank of England’s March 19th meeting. However, we still believe the market is underpricing the likelihood of […]

Revisions point to Ireland’s labour market in a healthier place

This morning’s CSO data show employee numbers grew by 2.0% to 2.58 million in December. This is a welcome bounce-back in the pace of job creation from the subdued 0.6% growth initially estimated for November. The fresh jobs data also follow the CSO’s sharp downward revision to the Irish unemployment rate to 4.7% in January, […]

Bank of England signals rate cuts to come in 2026

Today’s Bank of England decision to keep rates on hold at 3.75% was in line with expectations, but the tone of the minutes and press conference was not, indicating that the Bank rate was likely to be reduced further, and dropping the reference to gradual cuts. The Bank revised down it’s projection for UK GDP […]

Irish mortgage market grows to €14.5bn in 2025

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show Ireland’s mortgage market grew to €14.5bn in 2025, up 15% on the year, split between €12.3bn of loans for house purchase and €2.2bn of top-up/re-mortgaging activity. The expansion was driven by house price inflation, the average mortgage loan up 7% to €332,000 in 2025. Also, […]

Bank of Ireland Card Spending up 5.7% in December

The latest Bank of Ireland credit/debit card data show spending was up 5.7% in December, still ahead of CPI inflation at 3.2% (November), indicating real price adjusted spending growth by Irish households. The 2025 Christmas season had consumers out in force with spending in all the main categories up on December of 2024. Spending in […]

High frequency data points to growth in Q4

Last week’s Q3 national accounts showed the robust position the Irish economy is in. The surge in GDP driven by exports in Q1 2025 did not fall back over the following two quarters, as many had expected, and this left GDP growth averaging 16% in the first three quarters of the year. Moreover, the domestic […]

Irish GDP continues to outperform

Irish GDP fell by just 0.3% in Q3 2025, leaving the annual increase at 10.8%. GDP surged in Q12025, driven by front running of tariffs and new pharmaceutical production facilities coming online, and it had been expected that GDP would fall back somewhat over the rest of 2025. However, multinational sector output and exports have […]

UK Budget delays tax hikes but difficult questions unanswered

Today’s UK Budget put-off difficult tax increases until late-on in the life of the parliament. The plan to gradually reduce public sector borrowing to 1.9% of GDP by 2029/30 still relies on relatively optimistic assumptions on UK GDP growth and that the Labour government sticks to spending restraint in the run-up to the next general […]