Category: Daily blog

US jobs report the focus for today

While yesterday’s US economic data, including retail sales, were softer than forecast, prompting a firming of expectations for further Fed rate cuts, the dollar had something of a mixed performance. It shed another 1% or so against the yen, which continued to build on its post-election gains, but treaded water for the most part against […]

Dollar still under pressure

The dollar lost more ground yesterday amid a continuing rally in equity markets. The euro and yen both rose by almost 1% against the US currency, while sterling strengthened by just over half a percent, most of its gains coming after under pressure UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer received the backing of his cabinet colleagues. […]

EURUSD on the front foot

Equity markets recovered strongly on Friday having been under the cosh for much of last week, while Asian stocks posted solid gains overnight led by the Nikkei in Japan. European equities have opened in positive territory this morning and the US looks set to follow suit later today.  The dollar is under some pressure in […]

Sterling loses more ground post BoE

The Bank of England MPC left interest rates on hold at 3.75% yesterday, as expected. The outcome was very tight, however, with 4 of the 9 Committee members voting for a 25bps cut. Moreover, the MPC said inflation is set to return to target about a year earlier than previously expected, hence interest rates are […]

ECB and BoE rate decisions today

The ECB and Bank of England (BoE) both announce interest rate decisions later today. The ECB is expected to remain on hold again (at 2%) at this meeting, and indeed for the rest of this year according to current market pricing. The BoE is also expected to keep rates unchanged (3.75%) today but is seen […]

Some consolidation in FX markets

There was some consolidation in FX markets yesterday, after the swings seen recently, with the euro and sterling both confined to fairly narrow ranges against the dollar. They are trading at around $1.1830 and $1.3725 respectively this morning, not much changed from yesterday morning’s levels (albeit off lows for the week so far of about […]

Dollar extends its gains

The dollar advanced again yesterday – extending the gains it made on Friday following the announcement of a new Fed Chair – supported by stronger than expected US economic data. This sees EURUSD trading close to $1.18 this morning, down the best part of 3 cents from last week’s brief high of almost $1.21. Similarly, […]

Trump to announce new Fed Chair

US bond yields are a touch higher and the dollar slightly firmer overnight on news that Donald Trump is set to announce Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair later today. Warsh – who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011 – is considered something of a monetary policy ‘hawk’ – both in […]

Fed stays on hold as expected

The Fed left interest rates on hold at yesterday’s meeting, as expected, and upgraded its assessment of the economy and the labour market, indicating steady policy for the period ahead. The dollar briefly extended its gains following the meeting before giving up ground again subsequently. The euro is trading just shy of $1.20 against the […]

Dollar slumps on Trump

The dollar’s slide accelerated yesterday. Remarks by Donald Trump – whose Greenland-related tariff threat a little over a week ago was the initial catalyst for the currency’s recent decline – added to the move lower. He indicated little or no concern with the dollar’s fall, saying it would “find its own level”. EURUSD and GBPUSD […]