Category: Daily blog

Oil prices lower, bonds and stocks rally

Donald Trump’s announcement that he was postponing attacks on Iran to allow for talks between the two sides prompted a decline in oil prices and a rally in bonds and stocks at the start of the week. Japan and the US have confirmed that they jointly intervened in the FX market on Friday to support […]

BoE stays on hold

The yen has bounced off multi-decade lows of near Y164 against the dollar after the Japanese authorities seemingly intervened to support the currency, though it is off its best post-intervention levels trading just north of Y160. There has been some spillover to other dollar crosses with the euro and sterling building on their post-Fed meeting […]

Dollar slightly weaker post Fed meeting

The Fed left interest rates unchanged in a range of  3.50%-3.75% yesterday, though three of the twelve voting members preferred an immediate 25bps hike. Despite the latter, and Fed Chair Warsh’s pledge that the central bank will not ‘waiver’ in returning inflation to target, the market pared back the chances of rate hikes over the […]

Fed rate decision today

The euro and sterling are trading at around $1.14 and $1.33 against the dollar respectively ahead of today’s Fed interest rate decision, off lows yesterday of about $1.1355 and $1.3275, while EURGBP continues to nudge higher to trade at around £0.8570 this morning. The market is pricing in an almost 30% chance of a 25bps […]

Hopes for Iran peace sends oil prices lower

With the US and Iran holding back on further military strikes, there was a relief rally, sending oil prices and bond yields lower. In FX markets, the euro initially rallied, getting back to above $1.14, but failed to hold onto those gains, with the single currency slipping back over the course of the day to […]

Euro lost ground last week

The euro lost out against the dollar last week despite the ECB’s hawkish hold on Thursday, where they warned of upside risks to inflation and the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bps hike at their next meeting. That wasn’t enough to offset the impact of continued safe-haven demand for the dollar amid […]

ECB holds rates, warns of inflation risks

A continuing rise in global energy prices contributed to higher bond yields, weaker equity markets – with AI-related concerns also weighing on stocks – and a firmer dollar. The ECB left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but warned of upside risks to the inflation outlook, keeping intact market expectations that it will most probably hike […]

ECB to stay on hold for now

The euro is largely treading water ahead of the ECB’s latest interest rate decision later today. While it seems set to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, it is likely to keep open the prospect of a further hike (following the 25bps increase in June) given the renewed rise in oil and gas prices […]

Sterling loses some ground

Sterling came under some pressure during the course of yesterday’s session, seemingly related to concerns around the funding (or not) of the new UK government’s planned cut in VAT on electricity bills. The pound is down at around $1.3390 and £0.8525 versus the dollar and euro respectively this morning, though slightly softer than expected (UK) […]

Main currency pairs little changed

The euro and sterling are just marginally lower against the dollar relative to yesterday morning’s levels trading at around $1.1425 and $1.3440 respectively, while EURGBP is largely unchanged hovering just below the £0.85 level. Prime Minister Burnham’s pick as Chancellor – John Healey – was certainly a surprise but UK markets are unfazed judging by […]