Category: Daily blog

Bonds and stocks rally

It was a positive day in markets with bonds and equities rallying as oil prices nudged lower, while Donald Trump indicated that US-Iran talks could resume in the next “day or two”. The dollar was on the back foot, giving up more of its recent ‘safe haven’ gains. The euro is trading just shy of […]

Hopes for new Iran peace talks tempers oil gains

The US navel blockage of the Strait of Hormuz began yesterday. That saw oil prices opening higher yesterday morning, with a barrel of brent crude at over $102 while Asian and European equities fell back. However, claims from President Trump, later in the day, that Iran was reaching out to the US to ‘work a […]

US-Iran talks end without agreement

The US and Iran ended talks in Pakistan without an agreement, with Donald Trump subsequently posting that the US navy will immediately “begin the process of blockading” the Strait of Hormuz,  putting last week’s ceasefire at risk and raising doubts about a permanent end to the war. The reaction in markets is predictable albeit relatively […]

Dollar a touch softer

Doubts surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire weighed on markets for much of yesterday’s session. However, Israel’s announcement that it would hold direct talks with Lebanon helped change the mood late on. Oil prices fell back and US stocks rallied into the close, ending higher on the day overall, while Asian equity markets have advanced overnight. The […]

Dollar regains some ground

After the strong relief rally that followed the announcement of the US-Iran ceasefire, some early concerns about the status of the ceasefire, mainly related to Israel’s continuing attacks on Lebanon, is weighing a little on markets. US bond yields reversed course late in yesterday’s session, moving higher to end largely flat on the day, while […]

Relief rally

There is relief in markets this morning after Donald Trump suspended US attacks on Iran. The two sides have agreed a 2-week ceasefire, which will allow for the Strait of Hormuz to re-open in the intervening period. Oil prices have fallen sharply – Brent crude is down around $15 from yesterday’s close to just under […]

Main currency pairs little changed

The main currency pairs are little changed from last Thursday morning, with EURUSD and GBPUSD trading at around $1.1540 and $1.3240 respectively and EURGBP still hovering just above the £0.87 level. Markets generally may tread water today ahead of tonight’s Trump-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Economic data of note this […]

Markets reverse course

Markets are responding negatively to Donald Trump’s overnight “State of The War” address, which contained nothing new really and reiterated that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. Oil prices are moving back up again – Brent crude is at around $108 this morning – bond yields are […]

Dollar on the back foot

Optimism that an end to the conflict in the Middle East may be in sight, following comments by Iran’s President that his country “has the necessary will to end this war”, triggered a decline in oil prices and a strong rally in US stocks into the New York close. Asian equities are also sharply higher […]

Some respite for bond markets

There was some respite for bond markets yesterday, with US Treasuries leading a decline in yields as the market priced back in some (small) chance of a Fed rate cut this year. The dollar generally remained on the front foot though, notwithstanding lower US yields, gaining ground against the euro and sterling. EURUSD is trading […]