Author: Patrick Mullane

How long can Ireland’s rapid population growth continue?

In our final ‘Economics Weekly’ publication before Christmas we focus on the most pressing issue facing the Irish economy – whether the recent exceptional pace of job creation and population growth can be sustained in the face of growing bottlenecks and capacity pressures. The Irish population grew by 1.9% for a second successive year, or […]

Euro remains under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

The euro continues to trade around $1.05 to the dollar but remains under pressure ahead of today’s ECB meeting. The single currency has held up around $1.05 since mid-November having fallen from $1.09 prior to the election of Donald Trump. There was a little respite yesterday lunchtime for the euro, where it picked up close […]

Irish GDP rebounds more strongly than expected in Q3

Irish GDP bounced back by 3.5% in Q3 2024, more sharply than we had expected, and following contractions in five of the past six quarters. The upshot is that we will now likely have to revise up our forecasts for both Irish GDP growth and modified domestic demand to zero and 3% respectively (from the […]

Irish banking lending growing durably again

Today’s Money and Banking statistics show Irish household deposits continue to grow robustly, up 4.1% in the year to October to €159bn. Lending to households was up 2.8% to €103bn, split between 2.6% growth in mortgage lending to €85bn and a 3.6% rise in other household lending to €18bn. Despite weak housing market liquidity, the […]

Irish employment up 1.4% in Q3 2024 to 2.78 million

This week’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) indicates that employment grew rapidly, by 1.4% during Q3 2024 to a fresh record high of 2.78 million, up 3.7% on the year. This has been facilitated by net migration, driving a similar sharp 3.5% gain in the labour force over the same period. Hence, despite exceptional job creation […]

Markets take benign view of Trump Presidency

Equity market gains and expectations the Fed will be more cautious in cutting official interest rates suggest that whilst investors expect fiscal stimulus and pro-growth deregulation from the new Trump administration, they are not, for now, pricing in a damaging global trade war. On that point, the Washington based Peterson Institute has estimated Trump’s proposals […]

UK Budget leaves difficult questions unanswered

Yesterday’s UK Budget left many questions unanswered. The additional £70bn of public spending will provide a stimulus to the UK economy in 2025, even after £40bn of tax rises. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the net £30bn giveaway (1% of GDP) will add 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, but the overall […]

Euro dips but recovers against dollar

Similar to last week, the euro had a somewhat volatile days trading on the opening day of this week. The currency spent much of last week sliding to the dollar but staged a small recovery on Thursday and Friday to finish the week around $1.08, albeit down from $1.0860 at the start of last week. […]

Euro gains despite another weak PMI reading

Despite another weak PMI reading for the Euro Area, the euro managed to rally yesterday. The currency spent much of the week sliding to the dollar and dipped down below $1.0780 at times before rallying back to around $1.0820 currently. This came despite the ‘flash’ October PMI composite reading suggesting activity is contracting in the […]

PMIs add to concerns on health of Euro Area economy

This week’s composite PMI at 49.7 in October, served to accentuate fears on the Euro Area’s growth prospects for 2025. In this context, the ECB is expected to revise down its projection for 1.3% GDP growth in 2025 so markets are fully pricing in a further 25bp rate cut at the December 12th policy meeting, […]