Author: Patrick Mullane

Gauging the economic impact of events in the Middle East

Recent days have seen sharp declines in equity markets, risk aversion and fears on inflation driving significant moves in financial markets. For now, commodity markets see disruption to Middle East energy supply to likely be temporary, futures contracts for oil and natural gas falling back through 2026. However, bond markets have taken a less sanguine […]

Majority of Irish exports still exempt from US tariffs

President Trump seemed to do his best to sow uncertainty this week, see-sawing on whether to impose a new 10% or 15% global tariff. By asserting the new global 10% tariff would be ‘additional’ he was interpreted by some commentators as implying it would be on top of the existing 15% tariff ceiling on EU […]

Irish employment growth accelerates to 2% in Q4 2025

This morning’s Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed that employment rose by 0.5% in Q4 2025, the annual pace of job creation accelerating to 2% (up from 1.1% in Q3). The unemployment rate was revised down again, to 4.6% in Q4 2025, from the 5% initially estimated and declining from 4.9% in Q3 2025. These […]

UK CPI and Labour Market data point to March rate cut

Together, yesterday’s UK labour market data indicating the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025 and this morning’s CPI data showing inflation falling to 3% in January, copperfasten the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut at the Bank of England’s March 19th meeting. However, we still believe the market is underpricing the likelihood of […]

Little change in euro

With the US having a public holiday on Monday, yesterday really was the kick off to the week and saw a bit more action in markets. The euro made up a little more ground on sterling. The UK currency was softer due to yesterday morning’s weak UK employment data seeing markets price in a bigger […]

Revisions point to Ireland’s labour market in a healthier place

This morning’s CSO data show employee numbers grew by 2.0% to 2.58 million in December. This is a welcome bounce-back in the pace of job creation from the subdued 0.6% growth initially estimated for November. The fresh jobs data also follow the CSO’s sharp downward revision to the Irish unemployment rate to 4.7% in January, […]

UK Infographic – February 2026

We expect that UK GDP increased by 1.4% last year and will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic February 2026

UK Outlook – February 2026

Ongoing moderate growth amidst risks We have marginally downgraded our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts, to 1.0% (from 1.2%) and 1.4% (from 1.5%), reflecting a loss of momentum through late 2025 and ongoing challenges and risks. Unemployment is set to rise more than previously expected – reaching 5.5% this year before levelling off and beginning […]

Bank of England signals rate cuts to come in 2026

Today’s Bank of England decision to keep rates on hold at 3.75% was in line with expectations, but the tone of the minutes and press conference was not, indicating that the Bank rate was likely to be reduced further, and dropping the reference to gradual cuts. The Bank revised down it’s projection for UK GDP […]

Irish mortgage market grows to €14.5bn in 2025

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show Ireland’s mortgage market grew to €14.5bn in 2025, up 15% on the year, split between €12.3bn of loans for house purchase and €2.2bn of top-up/re-mortgaging activity. The expansion was driven by house price inflation, the average mortgage loan up 7% to €332,000 in 2025. Also, […]