Author: Patrick Mullane

Irish house price inflation rises to 7% in January

This morning’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) indicates house price inflation saw a surprise acceleration to 7% in January. However, we still believe momentum will slow towards our forecast for a 4% rise through 2026. MyHome asking price inflation fell to 5.4% in Q4 2025. Also, the average first-time-buyer mortgage approval was €320,000 in January, […]

Who’s right on oil, commodity or bond markets?

The overarching question facing financial markets is whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, representing 20% of global oil supply, can resume in the near future. For now commodity markets have taken a relatively benign view, futures curves indicating Brent oil prices will still fall from $100pb this morning, to $75 by early next year. […]

Irish GDP expands by 12% in 2025

The news Irish GDP contracted by 3.8% in Q4 2025, is explained by the surge in exports that occurred in September, around the time President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals, unwinding. However, manufacturing output has been more stable – indicating a structural upward shift in the level of GDP associated with new pharmaceutical […]

Gauging the economic impact of events in the Middle East

Recent days have seen sharp declines in equity markets, risk aversion and fears on inflation driving significant moves in financial markets. For now, commodity markets see disruption to Middle East energy supply to likely be temporary, futures contracts for oil and natural gas falling back through 2026. However, bond markets have taken a less sanguine […]

Majority of Irish exports still exempt from US tariffs

President Trump seemed to do his best to sow uncertainty this week, see-sawing on whether to impose a new 10% or 15% global tariff. By asserting the new global 10% tariff would be ‘additional’ he was interpreted by some commentators as implying it would be on top of the existing 15% tariff ceiling on EU […]

Irish employment growth accelerates to 2% in Q4 2025

This morning’s Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS) revealed that employment rose by 0.5% in Q4 2025, the annual pace of job creation accelerating to 2% (up from 1.1% in Q3). The unemployment rate was revised down again, to 4.6% in Q4 2025, from the 5% initially estimated and declining from 4.9% in Q3 2025. These […]

UK CPI and Labour Market data point to March rate cut

Together, yesterday’s UK labour market data indicating the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in Q4 2025 and this morning’s CPI data showing inflation falling to 3% in January, copperfasten the likelihood of a 25bp rate cut at the Bank of England’s March 19th meeting. However, we still believe the market is underpricing the likelihood of […]

Little change in euro

With the US having a public holiday on Monday, yesterday really was the kick off to the week and saw a bit more action in markets. The euro made up a little more ground on sterling. The UK currency was softer due to yesterday morning’s weak UK employment data seeing markets price in a bigger […]

Revisions point to Ireland’s labour market in a healthier place

This morning’s CSO data show employee numbers grew by 2.0% to 2.58 million in December. This is a welcome bounce-back in the pace of job creation from the subdued 0.6% growth initially estimated for November. The fresh jobs data also follow the CSO’s sharp downward revision to the Irish unemployment rate to 4.7% in January, […]

UK Infographic – February 2026

We expect that UK GDP increased by 1.4% last year and will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic February 2026