Author: Patrick Mullane

Ireland Outlook – April 2026

New Irish Economic Forecasts We have revised down our forecast for Irish GDP growth to 1.6% in 2026, followed by 3.6% in 2027. A key reason is that recent data suggest temporary front-running of US tariffs last year (now unwinding) played a stronger role in the 9.7% growth of exports in 2025. However, events in […]

Ireland Infographic – April 2026

We expect GDP will expand by 1.6% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. View the Ireland Infographic Here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic April 2026

Irish government now expects larger €9bn surplus in 2026

This week the Department of Finance revised up its projection for the government surplus to €9.2bn (2.5% of GNI*) in 2026, close to double the €5.1bn forecast in December once the cost of recent energy price supports and other spending is excluded. The explanation is €4.4bn of lower-than-expected borrowing (or larger surpluses) in semi-state bodies, […]

Hopes for new Iran peace talks tempers oil gains

The US navel blockage of the Strait of Hormuz began yesterday. That saw oil prices opening higher yesterday morning, with a barrel of brent crude at over $102 while Asian and European equities fell back. However, claims from President Trump, later in the day, that Iran was reaching out to the US to ‘work a […]

Irish HICP inflation now close to highest rate in the euro area

The news yesterday the CSO’s flash estimate of Irish HICP inflation rose to 3.6% in March was almost exactly in line with our expectations – driven up by rising petrol and diesel prices. However, Irish consumers also have the 3rd highest exposure in Europe to the 80% rise in home heating oil prices over the past month. […]

Irish CPI inflation likely to rise towards 3.5-4% in March

Equity markets have seen a fresh sell-off this morning as investors have reacted to President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran that he will strike energy infrastructure, should traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fail to resume. At the time of writing most European equity markets are down by at least a further 2%. Despite the conflict […]

Irish house price inflation rises to 7% in January

This morning’s Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) indicates house price inflation saw a surprise acceleration to 7% in January. However, we still believe momentum will slow towards our forecast for a 4% rise through 2026. MyHome asking price inflation fell to 5.4% in Q4 2025. Also, the average first-time-buyer mortgage approval was €320,000 in January, […]

Who’s right on oil, commodity or bond markets?

The overarching question facing financial markets is whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, representing 20% of global oil supply, can resume in the near future. For now commodity markets have taken a relatively benign view, futures curves indicating Brent oil prices will still fall from $100pb this morning, to $75 by early next year. […]

Irish GDP expands by 12% in 2025

The news Irish GDP contracted by 3.8% in Q4 2025, is explained by the surge in exports that occurred in September, around the time President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals, unwinding. However, manufacturing output has been more stable – indicating a structural upward shift in the level of GDP associated with new pharmaceutical […]

Gauging the economic impact of events in the Middle East

Recent days have seen sharp declines in equity markets, risk aversion and fears on inflation driving significant moves in financial markets. For now, commodity markets see disruption to Middle East energy supply to likely be temporary, futures contracts for oil and natural gas falling back through 2026. However, bond markets have taken a less sanguine […]