Author: Patrick Mullane

Ireland Infographic – October 2025

We expect GDP will expand by 10.7% in 2025 and by 3.1% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic October 2025

Ireland Outlook – October 2025

Irish GDP to grow 10.7% in 2025 We have revised up our forecasts for Irish GDP growth to 10.7% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 (vs 8.1% and 3.2% previously) and also for modified domestic demand to 3.4% and 2.6% respectively. This is because recent data suggest the recent surge in Irish exports has also […]

Irish housing completions rise to 33,000 in year to Q3 2025

This morning’s data show another welcome rise in housing completions, up 4% in Q3 2025 to 9,235 and to 33,000 over the past 12-months. This is the highest annual total for housing completions since 2009. The out-turn shows that overly pessimistic commentary at the turn of the year, that homebuilding might contract in 2025, was […]

Volatile end to the week

Markets had a volatile end to the week. Concerns related to a couple of US regional banks saw US equities fall sharply on Thursday but rebound on Friday, taking back most of the previous day’s losses. This ‘risk off’ environment on Thursday saw US bond yields fall with 10-year yields getting below 4% however, again, […]

Irish housing transactions now settled €30,000 over asking

Yesterday, we published the latest Bank of Ireland, MyHome report on the Irish housing market. Asking price inflation slowed to 5.7% in Q3 2025. This is a welcome sign house price rises are moderating, closer to the current pace of pay growth (5.3%). So the recent deterioration in affordability is easing. Nonetheless, the market remains […]

Majority of Irish exports to the US still exempt from tariffs

President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals from October 1st, albeit with a get-out clause for firms building plants in the United States, has failed to come to fruition. Rather, the White House has confirmed these tariffs have been paused, allowing time for similar deals, akin to that with Pfizer, to be concluded. […]

UK Infographic September 2025

We expect UK GDP will increase by 1.3% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Download the UK infographic in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic September 2025

UK Outlook – September 2025

Moderate growth amidst fiscal challenges. We have slightly adjusted our GDP growth projections, pushing up this year to 1.3% (from 1.1%) and reducing 2026 to 1.2% (from 1.3%). The upcoming Budget will require measures to reduce the deficit, weighing a bit on activity next year. We expect growth to pick up to 1.5% in 2027 […]

Dollar to remain under pressure as Fed cuts towards neutral

Last week we published our ‘Global Watch’, setting out our projections for exchange rates and interest rates in 2026. The key call was that we expected the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate to 3.25%-3.5% by mid-2026, continuing to put downward pressure on the dollar so that the €/$ exchange rate will push into a […]

Substantial fiscal consolidation a risk for UK and Sterling

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves faces a range of headwinds that will make it harder to meet her fiscal rule for a current budget balance by 2029/30; recent Labour government reversals on planned welfare cuts, likely downward revisions to the OBR’s projections for UK GDP growth, questionable plans for restrained spending from 2027 […]