Author: Patrick Mullane

UK Infographic – January 2025

We expect UK GDP will increase by 0.8% in 2024,  rising to 1.2% growth this year and 1.6% in 2026. Download the UK Infographic here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic January 2025

UK Outlook – January 2025

Growth stalls despite fiscal loosening We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2024 to 0.8%, from 1.1% previously, on foot of weaker activity over recent months. With the outlook for H1 this year looking softer we have also reduced our 2025 forecast, from 1.4% to 1.2%. We expect a rebound in H2 and our […]

Rapid pace of Irish job creation sustained into Q4 2024

This morning’s CSO release showing employee numbers up 0.2% in November, or by 2.4% on the year, to a fresh high of 2.5 million is welcome news. Ireland’s rapid pace of job creation has continued into Q4. Even if December is flat, employee numbers look set to have risen by at least 0.7% in Q4 […]

Euro making small gains

The respite for the euro continued yesterday with the single currency getting back to above $1.03 to the dollar. The European currency was under sustained pressure for much of last week but has rebounded somewhat at the start of this week, now up a cent on Monday’s low of just under $1.02. There is still […]

MyHome report shows asking prices still buoyant in Q4 2024

This morning we have published the Bank of Ireland, MyHome report, pointing to sustained upward pressure on house prices. MyHome asking price inflation accelerated to 8.4% in Q4 2024. Also, properties are now being sold 9% above the original asking price, with one-in-seven transactions being settled at a 20% premium to asking. The market remains […]

How long can Ireland’s rapid population growth continue?

In our final ‘Economics Weekly’ publication before Christmas we focus on the most pressing issue facing the Irish economy – whether the recent exceptional pace of job creation and population growth can be sustained in the face of growing bottlenecks and capacity pressures. The Irish population grew by 1.9% for a second successive year, or […]

Euro remains under pressure ahead of ECB meeting

The euro continues to trade around $1.05 to the dollar but remains under pressure ahead of today’s ECB meeting. The single currency has held up around $1.05 since mid-November having fallen from $1.09 prior to the election of Donald Trump. There was a little respite yesterday lunchtime for the euro, where it picked up close […]

Irish GDP rebounds more strongly than expected in Q3

Irish GDP bounced back by 3.5% in Q3 2024, more sharply than we had expected, and following contractions in five of the past six quarters. The upshot is that we will now likely have to revise up our forecasts for both Irish GDP growth and modified domestic demand to zero and 3% respectively (from the […]

Irish banking lending growing durably again

Today’s Money and Banking statistics show Irish household deposits continue to grow robustly, up 4.1% in the year to October to €159bn. Lending to households was up 2.8% to €103bn, split between 2.6% growth in mortgage lending to €85bn and a 3.6% rise in other household lending to €18bn. Despite weak housing market liquidity, the […]

Irish employment up 1.4% in Q3 2024 to 2.78 million

This week’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) indicates that employment grew rapidly, by 1.4% during Q3 2024 to a fresh record high of 2.78 million, up 3.7% on the year. This has been facilitated by net migration, driving a similar sharp 3.5% gain in the labour force over the same period. Hence, despite exceptional job creation […]