Author: Patrick Mullane

Trump tariffs deeper and broader than expected

Financial markets have sold off overnight as US President Donald Trump unveiled broader and more aggressive tariffs. Remarkably, China now faces additional tariffs exceeding 50%, with a 20% rate on Irish and EU exports imposed. However, a key development for Ireland is that pharmaceuticals are excluded. This means that 80-90% of Irish exports to the United […]

Irish housing transactions see modest growth in Q1

There are now sufficient residential transactions recorded on the Property Price Register for us to assess trends in early 2025. We estimate transaction volumes in January and February were up 3% on the year, modest growth, but merely serving to reverse the 3.5% fall in transactional activity to 61,000 in calendar year 2024. The underlying […]

Bank of England holds, March Budget statement up next

This morning’s Bank of England decision to hold rates at 4.5% was in line with market expectations. Sterling rose slightly to 83.6p against the euro following the decision, but with markets still pricing in the Bank Rate to fall to 4% by end-2025. This response was helped by the dovish tone of the MPC meeting […]

RICS points to UK housing market activity softening

This morning’s RICS survey points to softening UK housing market conditions. The rush of homebuyer activity, ahead of stamp duty threshold changes due April 1st, now appears to be cooling off. A majority of estate agents reported falling new buyer enquiries (-14%), agreed sales (-13%) and 3-month sales expectations (-5%). In contrast, new instructions to […]

Euro holds gains

The euro staged a comeback last week after Germany’s new chancellor-elect announced plans for a €500bn infrastructure fund (to be used over the next 10-years) and a relaxation of the country’s “debt brake” to allow for increased defence spending.  Increased government spending on infrastructure and defence across euro-zone members may now be in prospect and […]

Irish GDP expanded by 1.2% in 2024

Data released by the CSO yesterday revised up GDP growth in the Irish economy last year to 1.2% (from a preliminary estimate of 0.3%). The data showed the domestic economy grew solidly last year, with modified domestic demand up 2.7%, while volatility in the MNC sector, largely caused by changes in contract manufacturing and intangibles […]

Equity and FX markets buffeted by Trump tariff threats

The sell-off in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 down 4.6% and Nasdaq by 7.5% over the past week, has reflected a range of factors; i) fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, ii) macroeconomic data suggesting the uncertainty is starting to weigh on US business and consumer confidence iii) pressure on tech-firms […]

Gauging Ireland’s exposure to Trump tariffs

The probability of US tariffs being imposed on a broad range of EU exports in the near future has increased. President Donald Trump has implemented 10% tariffs on China, reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the EU and announced 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminium. European Commission President Ursula von der […]

Bank of England cuts rates to 4.5% as it halves GDP forecast

The Bank of England cut its policy interest rate to 4.5% as expected today. This was despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now expecting CPI inflation to pick-up to 3.75% during the summer of 2025, mainly due to higher energy prices. However, the most striking feature of the MPC’s new forecast was the halving in […]

Ireland Infographic – January 2025

We expect GDP will expand by 4.3% in 2025 and by 3.9% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic January 2025