Author: Patrick Mullane

Ireland Infographic – July 2025

We expect GDP will expand by 8.1% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic July 2025  

Ireland Outlook – July 2025

New Ireland Economic Forecasts  Our new forecast is for 8.1% GDP growth in 2025, slowing to 3.2% in 2026. These upward revisions reflect the surge in exports and multinational output over the past 12-months, but also buoyant consumer and public spending. Our forecast for modified domestic demand has been revised up slightly to 2.9% growth […]

Spending on Bank of Ireland Credit/Debit cards up 5.7% in June

The latest Bank of Ireland credit/debit card data show spending was up 5.7% in June, still well ahead of CPI inflation at 1.8%, indicating substantial real price adjusted gains for Irish households. Clearly, there has been little impact from any Trump-tariff related uncertainty and the recent dip in consumer confidence. Holiday related spending was up […]

Oil and dollar rally somewhat following US strikes on Iran

The euro was trading above $1.15 for much of Friday, on news – at that time – that the US might be delaying any direct attack on Iran. However, that proved to be a false flag as the US did strike at nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. That saw the dollar open this week […]

Market relief as Trump signals delay in Iran military decision

The Bank of England kept rates on hold at the June MPC meeting, as expected, and sterling gained just a touch on the euro briefly but is back trading at 85.5p, where it was prior to the MPC announcement, with the single currency staying over the 85p level at all times, which it broke above […]

Euro-Dollar pushes through $1.15 on trade/deficit fears

A key call in our May ‘Global Market Watch’ was that the dollar would depreciate to trade in a$1.15-$1.20 range against the euro by the final quarter of 2025. This week the exchange rate pushed into this range, earlier than expected, reflecting concerns on US tariffs, the Federal debt/deficit and the administration’s dollar policy. Specifically, […]

Dollar gains as Fed stays on hold

The dollar strengthened and broke below $1.15 to the euro again, to circa. $1.1460 currently, as the Fed stayed on hold at their June meeting. The greenback also made up some ground on sterling which pushed down to around $1.34. The Fed’s stayed on hold and their updated forecasts show higher inflation and weaker growth […]

Dollar rallies as threat of wider Mid East war grows

The dollar has gained as markets fear the war with Iran will spread, the euro is now trading back at $1.1520 – have been below $1.15 for a time – while sterling is trading just above $1.3450. The single currency is up a little on sterling, to 85.5p. The Middle East conflict appears to be […]

Israel/Iran conflict continues to drive volatility

Reports and counter reports that the Israel and Iran conflict was easing or intensifying saw market calm yesterday but then reverse course overnight. Initial reports that Iran was seeking to de-escalate the conflict and return to nuclear talks with the US saw the dollar lose its gains yesterday with the euro back above $1.16 and […]

Markets fret as Israel-Iran conflict continues

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has seen the dollar make some gains as equities and government bonds lose out. The euro which was trading above $1.16 on Thursday before news of Israel’s strikes on Iran is now trading a little above $1.1550 while sterling is trading at $1.3580 from over $1.36 late on […]