Author: Patrick Mullane

Hopes for Iran peace sends oil prices lower

With the US and Iran holding back on further military strikes, there was a relief rally, sending oil prices and bond yields lower. In FX markets, the euro initially rallied, getting back to above $1.14, but failed to hold onto those gains, with the single currency slipping back over the course of the day to […]

Euro lost ground last week

The euro lost out against the dollar last week despite the ECB’s hawkish hold on Thursday, where they warned of upside risks to inflation and the market pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bps hike at their next meeting. That wasn’t enough to offset the impact of continued safe-haven demand for the dollar amid […]

UK Infographic – July 2026

We expect that UK GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Download the UK Infographic in Full Here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic July 2026

UK Outlook – July 2026

New Prime Minister, Similar Outlook We have kept our outlook unchanged for the most part, with a few slight tweaks. The economy continues to face a number of headwinds, including ongoing geopolitical tensions and high/volatile global energy prices. We expect below trend GDP growth of 0.9% this year and 1.1% next year (both upgraded by […]

Ireland Infographic – July 2026

We expect GDP will contract by 3.0% in 2026 before rebounding by 3.6% in 2027. We expect the domestic economy to expand in both years, with modified domestic demand increasing by 3.5% this year and 2.5% next year. View the Ireland Infographic Here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic July 2026

Ireland Outlook – July 2026

New Irish Economic Forecasts We expect a contraction in GDP (-3%) in 2026 due to the surge in pharmaceutical exports last year, driven by fears of US tariffs, which has now unwound. Modified domestic demand is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, revised slightly upwards. Our lower forecast for CPI […]

Payrolls data still point to heathy pace of Irish job creation

This morning’s CSO data, showing another 0.5% gain in employee numbers in the first four months of 2026, to 2.6 million in April, are a reassuring sign that a healthy pace of job creation has been sustained this year. Construction (+4.5%), health (+4%), public administration (+3.4%) and professional/scientific (+2.8%) were among the fastest-growing sectors, while […]

Euro back up over $1.16 and Brent below $80/barrel

The positivity from the interim peace deal in the Middle East continues to play through in markets, with a broad risk-on environment for the most part, and increasing expectations of a gradually lower inflation / lower interest rate environment than was previously the consensus. Oil prices continued to slide, with a barrel of Brent down […]

Hope for durable Middle East peace agreement sees global risk-on rally

Monday was dominated by the news of the interim US/Iran peace deal, which kicks off 60 days of further negotiations on a more comprehensive and durable agreement, but the Straits of Hormuz could be open to traffic by the end of this week – though there is reports of some disagreements between the US and […]

Revised rate expectations may give UK housing market a reprieve

This morning’s Rightmove data showing asking prices falling by 0.6% in June, down 0.5% year-on-year, highlights the fragile state of the UK housing market. They follow last week’s RICS survey showing a large net majority of UK estate agents reporting falling prices (-35%), new buyer enquiries (-34%) and sales (-37%). The catalyst for the recent […]