Author: Patrick Mullane

Irish GDP expanded by 1.2% in 2024

Data released by the CSO yesterday revised up GDP growth in the Irish economy last year to 1.2% (from a preliminary estimate of 0.3%). The data showed the domestic economy grew solidly last year, with modified domestic demand up 2.7%, while volatility in the MNC sector, largely caused by changes in contract manufacturing and intangibles […]

Equity and FX markets buffeted by Trump tariff threats

The sell-off in US equity markets, with the S&P 500 down 4.6% and Nasdaq by 7.5% over the past week, has reflected a range of factors; i) fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, ii) macroeconomic data suggesting the uncertainty is starting to weigh on US business and consumer confidence iii) pressure on tech-firms […]

Gauging Ireland’s exposure to Trump tariffs

The probability of US tariffs being imposed on a broad range of EU exports in the near future has increased. President Donald Trump has implemented 10% tariffs on China, reiterated threats to impose tariffs on the EU and announced 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminium. European Commission President Ursula von der […]

Bank of England cuts rates to 4.5% as it halves GDP forecast

The Bank of England cut its policy interest rate to 4.5% as expected today. This was despite the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now expecting CPI inflation to pick-up to 3.75% during the summer of 2025, mainly due to higher energy prices. However, the most striking feature of the MPC’s new forecast was the halving in […]

Ireland Infographic – January 2025

We expect GDP will expand by 4.3% in 2025 and by 3.9% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic January 2025  

Ireland Outlook – January 2025

Irish GDP to expand 4% in 2025 We have revised up our projections for the growth of Irish GDP (4.3%), modified domestic demand (4%) and employment (2.2%) in 2025. This reflects data for H2 2024 indicating the economy had stronger momentum than we anticipated. Also, distortions from ‘contract manufacturing’ have dissipated so GDP should rise […]

Irish mortgage market grows to €12.6bn in 2024

This morning’s Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) data show that Ireland’s mortgage market grew to €12.6bn in 2024, up from €12.1bn in 2023. The growth in the mortgage market came despite flat mortgage lending volumes, instead relying on a 6% rise in average mortgage loan for house purchase to €309,000. Crucially, first-time-buyer lending volumes […]

Irish housing completions fall to 30,300 in 2024

This morning’s CSO data shows a disappointing 8,732 newly built homes completed in Q4 2024, down 15% on the year. This surprise decline in Q4 was almost entirely due to volatile apartment completions, which could bounce-back, whereas house completions were flat. Housing starts data, 60,243 in 2024, paint a very different picture, pointing to a […]

UK Infographic – January 2025

We expect UK GDP will increase by 0.8% in 2024,  rising to 1.2% growth this year and 1.6% in 2026. Download the UK Infographic here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic January 2025

UK Outlook – January 2025

Growth stalls despite fiscal loosening We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2024 to 0.8%, from 1.1% previously, on foot of weaker activity over recent months. With the outlook for H1 this year looking softer we have also reduced our 2025 forecast, from 1.4% to 1.2%. We expect a rebound in H2 and our […]