Author: Patrick Mullane

UK Infographic – May 2025

We expect UK GDP will increase by 1.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Download the UK Infographic in full here: Bank of Ireland UK Infographic May 2025

UK Outlook – May 2025

Outlook deteriorates amid tariff uncertainty Since our last projections in January the global outlook has unfortunately deteriorated, due in the main to the trade policies of the Trump administration. With uncertainty high we have decided to reduce our 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, to 1.0% and 1.3%. Unemployment, which has […]

Still expecting dollar to depreciate over the medium-term

US financial markets have seen a remarkable rebound in May, as signs of progress in trade negotiations and a more conciliatory approach from the White House has emerged. The dollar has appreciated to $1.12 against the euro, vs a $1.15 peak in April. However, the Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariffs, and 30% on China, remain […]

April dip in Irish business and consumer confidence not yet sufficient to delay key spending decisions

The past week has seen a flurry of surveys on Irish business and consumer confidence in April ,helping to gauge the impact of US tariff related uncertainty. Sentiment has clearly taken a hit. Irish consumer confidence fell to a 2-year low in April but remains well above the previous trough in 2022 when CPI inflation […]

Ireland Infographic – May 2025

We expect GDP will expand by 3.5% in 2025 and by 3.7% in 2026. Download the Ireland Infographic here: Bank of Ireland Ireland Infographic May 2025

Ireland Outlook – May 2025

New Ireland Economic Forecasts We have revised down our forecasts for Irish GDP growth to 3.5% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026. This forecast entails softer, but still robust growth, due to the negative impact of uncertainty on consumer and investment spending. Also, the 10% baseline tariffs that now apply to 2-3% of Irish trade […]

Housing completions see marginal 2% growth in Q1 2025

This morning’s CSO data show residential dwellings completions were 5,938 in the first quarter of 2025, up 2% on the year. Whilst a marginal improvement, the completions data have clearly not accelerated in line with the surge in commencements to 69,000 in 2024, artificially inflated by developers rushing to take advantage of temporary waivers on […]

Sterling under pressure despite rising gilt yields

Sterling has lagged the euro and other currencies in recent weeks, during the risk-off moves in financial markets as investors have reduced their dollar exposures. This is despite a notable steepening of the UK yield curve, 30-year gilt yields now at 5.35%, their highest level since the late-1990s. This shows UK assets have failed to […]

Risks for Irish economy recede a little

The relief rally in equity markets following President Trump’s decision to delay ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for 90-days has proven short-lived. Yesterday, both the S&P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq(4.3%) fell back sharply as investors refocused on the substantial US tariffs that remain in place and the potential for US/China trade tensions to escalate. This morning, China has […]

Trump tariffs deeper and broader than expected

Financial markets have sold off overnight as US President Donald Trump unveiled broader and more aggressive tariffs. Remarkably, China now faces additional tariffs exceeding 50%, with a 20% rate on Irish and EU exports imposed. However, a key development for Ireland is that pharmaceuticals are excluded. This means that 80-90% of Irish exports to the United […]