Author: Michael Crowley

Positive mood in markets for a change

A retreat in oil prices and some paring back of central bank rate hike expectations contributed to a fall in bond yields, a rebound in stocks, and a weaker dollar. Reported intervention by the Japanese authorities to support the yen also weighed on the dollar. The euro has strengthened to around $1.1740 against the US […]

Rising oil prices, higher bond yields

The relentless rise in oil prices – Brent crude is north of $120 p/b this morning – continues to drive government bond yields higher across the main markets. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected, but three (of twelve) members voted against retaining an “easing bias” in the monetary policy statement, which added to […]

Euro and sterling holding in versus $

The euro and sterling held in reasonably well against the dollar notwithstanding elevated oil prices, rising bond yields, and soft equity markets. They are trading at around $1.17 and $1.35 respectively this morning, off lows yesterday of circa $1.1675 and $1.3465, while EURGBP is marginally firmer at £0.8670. The Fed announces its latest interest rate […]

Bond yields higher again

Bond yields edged higher again yesterday, extending last week’s increase, amid rising oil prices (Brent crude is approaching $111 p/b this morning), while equity markets were under pressure for the most part. In FX, the euro and sterling both advanced against the dollar for a time, reaching intra-day highs of about $1.1755 and $1.3575 respectively, […]

Central banks the focus this week

Oil prices are heading higher this morning after the “no talks” show between the US and Iran over the weekend – there was growing optimism on Friday that face-to-face negotiations would take place – with Brent crude now just shy of $108 per barrel. The euro and sterling though are still holding onto the gains […]

No respite from rising oil prices

There’s no respite it seems from rising oil prices with Brent crude now north of $105 per barrel, up around $15 on the week and not far shy of where it was just before the original US-Iran ceasefire was announced on April 7th. Trump has announced a 3-week extension to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, but that […]

Global Watch April 2026

The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a sharp rise in energy prices. Inflation will be higher and economic growth lower as a result, though to what extent will ultimately depend on how long energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted. While this leaves central banks facing a difficult balancing act, the […]

Euro on the back foot

Oil prices headed north yesterday notwithstanding the extension of the ceasefire – with Brent crude moving back up above $100 p/b as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a mess – putting upward pressure on bond yields, while European equity markets ended lower for a third day running. The euro lost ground to […]

Trump extends ceasefire

Markets were under pressure yesterday, with bond yields higher and stocks lower, as it became clearer that US-Iran talks were unlikely to resume in the near-term. Trump’s subsequent unilateral announcement of an extension of the ceasefire (until such time “as discussion are concluded, one way or the other”) is helping to restore some relative calm […]

Main currency pairs tread water

Markets await developments in relation to the war in Iran, in particular regarding any resumption of talks ahead of the end of the current ceasefire tomorrow. The main currency pairs are not much changed from yesterday morning, with the euro and sterling both marginally firmer against the dollar at around $1.1775 and $1.3520 respectively. EURGBP […]