Author: Michael Crowley

Dollar strengthens further

The dollar has advanced further, building on the gains made following Tuesday’s firmer than expected inflation data in the US. It has strengthened to around $1.1090 against the euro (its best level since early 2025) and $1.3265 versus sterling, up from about $1.1150 and $1.3325 respectively yesterday morning. EURGBP continues to trade in a fairly […]

Dollar firmer following US inflation data

Stronger than expected US CPI inflation data triggered a notable reassessment of Fed rate hike expectations, with the market now more than full pricing in a 25bps increase in the central bank’s policy rate at next month’s meeting (Dec 8-9th). This in turn triggered a sharp spike in US bond yields, particularly at the short-end […]

Oil prices continue to head south

Oil prices continue to head south. Brent crude fell by around $5 to just under $93 p/b yesterday, and is down another couple of dollars overnight following comments by Donald Trump, who said momentum is building towards ending the conflict in Iran. Lower oil prices are providing a supportive backdrop for equity markets. Stocks rallied […]

Dollar a touch softer this morning

The dollar advanced further on Friday on the back of stronger than expected US jobs data, extending the gains it made during Thursday’s sharp fall in equity markets. The euro and sterling finished the day close to fresh lows for the week against the US currency, though both are a touch firmer at the start […]

Dollar benefits as stocks plunge

The Bank of England MPC raised interest rates by 25bps to 4%, as expected, with one member favouring a 50bps increase. The MPC also indicated that another increase is likely soon, probably either next month or at the following meeting in early February. Meanwhile, the dollar is benefiting from a ‘flight to safety’ amid a […]

Falling oil prices buoy markets

A continuing fall in oil prices contributed to a decline in government bond yields, a rally in equity markets, and a modest weakening of the dollar. The euro is trading at around $1.1250 against the US currency this morning, while sterling is trading at about $1.3475 and £0.8350 against the dollar and euro respectively ahead […]

A busy week ahead!

Equity markets sold off quite sharply on Friday, led by the Nasdaq in the US, while French government bonds came under pressure, with yields rising and spreads over Germany widening out again. The euro and sterling are managing to hold onto most of the gains they made against the dollar over the latter part of […]

UK Budget: A cautious package with slightly higher borrowing

Chancellor Healey’s Budget aimed to balance continued fiscal consolidation with some support for households and businesses financed by targeted tax measures. Although borrowing is still expected to decline over the next couple of years, higher interest rates and associated debt service costs means that the deficit will be larger than previously projected. The budgetary plans […]

Dollar gives up some of its recent gains

The ECB left the deposit rate on hold at 2.5% following yesterday’s meeting, as expected. The accompanying policy statement noted that the “increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation,” and while it also said that the recent tightening […]

Fed stays on hold, ECB to do likewise

The Fed left interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.75%-4% following yesterday’s meeting, as expected, though two (of 12) members voted for a 25bps increase. The accompanying policy statement noted that the “accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation” to the […]