Author: Michael Crowley

Dollar is King (again)

The dollar chalked up broad-based gains last week with most of its advance following Wednesday’s more hawkish than expected Fed meeting. The central bank said it was “unambiguously committed” to meeting its 2% inflation target, prompting the market to price in an additional 20bps of rate hikes by the end of this year. Oil prices […]

BoE stays on hold again

The Bank of England MPC left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. Two (of nine) Committee members voted for an immediate 25bps increase, just one more than at the April meeting. Near-term rate hike expectations eased a little following the decision, though the market is still pricing in a 25bps increase by the end […]

A hawkish Fed hold

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5% to 3.75%) at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting, the first under the new Chair, Kevin Warsh. In its policy statement, which was considerably shorter than previous statements, the Fed noted that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace” (and) ‘inflation remains […]

Oil prices lower, dollar weaker

Oil prices fell and the dollar weakened after reports emerged that the US and Iran had agreed a 60-day extension of the current ceasefire, during which time there would be “unrestricted” passage through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations on a permanent peace deal continue, though it seems Trump has yet to give this his […]

Another round of US strikes

News of a fresh round of US strikes on Iran overnight – which a US official described as “measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire” – is weighing a little on markets. Brent crude oil prices are up around $3 to almost $97 per barrel, while US bond yields were higher and Asian […]

Main currency pairs not much changed

While oil prices rose to just over $100 per barrel at one stage during yesterday’s session  following renewed US strikes on Iran, the price action in markets was fairly muted suggesting they still expect some kind of peace deal/agreement to be reached between the two sides relatively soon. In FX, the euro is marginally firmer […]

Deal or no deal

Hopes for a US-Iran peace agreement triggered a rally in European bonds and stocks yesterday (US and UK markets were both closed for a public holiday), but reports of US strikes on Iran overnight is muddying the waters regarding a deal and is souring the mood in markets a little this morning as oil prices […]

Oil prices lower, dollar softer

A potential US-Iran peace deal, amid ongoing negotiations, is driving markets at the start of the week, though trading volumes may be subdued today with the US and UK both out on public holiday. Brent crude oil prices are down around $5 from Friday’s closing levels to under $100 per barrel, Asian equity markets posted […]

Main currency pairs not much changed

The euro and sterling are not much changed from yesterday morning’s levels against the dollar, though off their intra-day lows of about $1.1575 and $1.3390 respectively, trading at around $1.1610 and $1.3425 this morning. Similarly, EURGBP is largely unchanged as it continues to hover in and around the £0.8650 area. Oil prices fell late yesterday […]

Bonds and stocks rally

A drop in oil prices – Brent crude is down at around $106 per barrel – on the back of reports that a US-Iran deal may be in the offing contributed to a decline in bond yields, reversing Tuesday’s rise in yields, and a decent rally in stocks. The “risk on” mood in markets weighed […]