Author: Michael Crowley

ECB and BoE rate decisions today

The ECB and Bank of England (BoE) both announce interest rate decisions later today. The ECB is expected to remain on hold again (at 2%) at this meeting, and indeed for the rest of this year according to current market pricing. The BoE is also expected to keep rates unchanged (3.75%) today but is seen […]

Some consolidation in FX markets

There was some consolidation in FX markets yesterday, after the swings seen recently, with the euro and sterling both confined to fairly narrow ranges against the dollar. They are trading at around $1.1830 and $1.3725 respectively this morning, not much changed from yesterday morning’s levels (albeit off lows for the week so far of about […]

Dollar extends its gains

The dollar advanced again yesterday – extending the gains it made on Friday following the announcement of a new Fed Chair – supported by stronger than expected US economic data. This sees EURUSD trading close to $1.18 this morning, down the best part of 3 cents from last week’s brief high of almost $1.21. Similarly, […]

Trump to announce new Fed Chair

US bond yields are a touch higher and the dollar slightly firmer overnight on news that Donald Trump is set to announce Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair later today. Warsh – who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011 – is considered something of a monetary policy ‘hawk’ – both in […]

Fed stays on hold as expected

The Fed left interest rates on hold at yesterday’s meeting, as expected, and upgraded its assessment of the economy and the labour market, indicating steady policy for the period ahead. The dollar briefly extended its gains following the meeting before giving up ground again subsequently. The euro is trading just shy of $1.20 against the […]

Dollar slumps on Trump

The dollar’s slide accelerated yesterday. Remarks by Donald Trump – whose Greenland-related tariff threat a little over a week ago was the initial catalyst for the currency’s recent decline – added to the move lower. He indicated little or no concern with the dollar’s fall, saying it would “find its own level”. EURUSD and GBPUSD […]

Little respite for the dollar yet

The dollar remains under pressure having fallen sharply late Friday amid speculation of imminent joint US-Japan intervention to support the yen. The US currency very briefly traded down to lows of just over $1.19 versus the euro and north of $1.37 versus sterling during the course of yesterday’s session, and is only marginally firmer this […]

A softer dollar

Donald Trump’s tariff retreat did little to support the dollar which was softer across the board yesterday notwithstanding a batch of solid US economic data. It has now given up almost all of the gains it made against the euro over the first couple of weeks of the new year, trading at around $1.1730, and […]

Trump’s tariff retreat

There’s some relief in markets as Donald Trump backs down from his threat to impose tariffs on 1st February after he said he had agreed ‘a framework for a future deal with respect to Greenland’ with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, though there are few details available regarding what this entails (should we be surprised?). […]

Weak US markets

US stocks, bonds and the dollar all fell yesterday in response to Trump’s latest tariff threat (US markets were closed Monday), a mini rerun of the ‘sell America’ trade that followed his infamous reciprocal tariffs announcement last April, though some of the fall in bond prices (rise in bond yields) probably reflected a spillover from […]