Author: Michael Crowley

Dollar weaker ahead of Fed meeting

The dollar has weakened as the Fed begins its two-day monetary policy meeting today and ahead of a batch of US economic data this afternoon, while UK labour market data released a short while ago were broadly as expected and haven’t had any impact on sterling. The pound and euro are both firmer against the […]

Fed front and centre this week

The main currency pairs were largely unchanged on Friday and may continue to tread water ahead of this week’s Fed interest rate announcement on Wednesday. After a nine-month hiatus, the Fed is expected to resume lowering rates with a 25bps cut to 4.0%-4.25% – though there may be one or two dissenting votes in favour […]

Dollar a little lower after inflation data

Yesterday’s consumer price inflation data in the US were broadly in line with the consensus forecast, copper-fastening market expectations for a Fed rate cut next week and propelling US stocks to new record highs. The ECB remained on hold, as widely anticipated, and said risks to economic growth have become more balanced while also revising […]

US CPI data and ECB meeting today

The dollar has held onto the gains it made during the course of Tuesday’s session notwithstanding slightly softer than forecast producer price inflation data in the US yesterday. The US consumer price inflation report for August is the key economic data release today, while the ECB announces its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon. Ahead […]

Global Watch September 2025

After a nine-month hiatus, the Fed looks set to resume lowering interest rates as it balances upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment. We expect it to cut by 25bps this month and by a further 75bps by mid-2026. With Euro area inflation back at target and the deposit rate in broadly neutral […]

Dollar firmer ahead of US inflation data

The euro and sterling have fallen back from yesterday’s early morning highs of around $1.1780 and $1.3590 against the dollar to trade at about $1.17 and $1.3535 this morning, leaving EURGBP a little lower at just under £0.8650. This seems mostly related to market repositioning ahead of inflation data in the US – producer prices […]

Dollar under pressure

The dollar remains under pressure following Friday’s weak jobs data in the US, which has buoyed market expectations for Fed rate cuts. The euro is trading at a post-jobs data high of around $1.1770 – notwithstanding the collapse of the government in France after it lost the confidence motion in parliament yesterday evening – and […]

US jobs report weaker than expected

Friday’s much weaker than expected jobs report in the US – the economy added just 22k jobs in August – would seem to have sealed a cut in interest rates at next week’s Fed meeting (17th), although there’s still inflation data for August to come this Thursday (they would  probably need to show inflation a […]

Dollar softer ahead of US jobs data

The main currency pairs largely treaded water yesterday amid a mixed bag of economic data, though both US bonds and equities finished the day strongly. The euro and sterling are edging a little higher against the dollar this morning, ahead of the key employment report in the US later today, trading at around $1.1670 and […]

Bonds reverse course as yields fall

Yesterday’s price action in markets was the polar opposite of Tuesday’s. The dollar and bond yields fell as softer than expected US labour market data contributed to a firming of Fed rate cut expectations, while stocks reversed most of their previous day’s losses. In FX, the euro and sterling are trading at around $1.1660 and […]