Author: Michael Crowley

Dollar a touch softer

The euro closed out last week at $1.0270 against the dollar, up slightly from the previous Friday’s close, while sterling shed a half a cent to finish at $1.2170, with EURGBP about half a penny stronger on the week just shy of £0.8450. They are both a little firmer against the US currency this morning, […]

Main currency pairs not much changed

The euro and sterling have been essentially moving sideways against the dollar since bouncing off their lows earlier in the week. The single currency is trading at around $1.0290 this morning, little changed from yesterday morning, while the pound has slipped to around $1.2190 (from over $1.22) on the back of weaker than expected UK […]

Bond yields fall post inflation data

Yesterday’s softer than expected inflation data in the US and the UK prompted a re-pricing of central bank rate cut expectations, most notably for the Bank of England (BoE), a large fall in bond yields, and a rally in equity markets. In the currency markets, the euro and sterling rose to highs for the day […]

Dollar a touch softer

The dollar is a touch weaker this morning, seemingly on the back of a report that the incoming Trump administration will adopt a “gradual” approach to imposing tariffs. In any case, there’s some respite for the euro and sterling, which are trading at around $1.0270 and $1.2230 against the US currency respectively (up from lows […]

Global Watch January 2025

The Fed and ECB both lowered interest rates by 100bps over the second half of 2024 to 3.0% and 4.25%-4.5% respectively. However, while increased concern about the Euro area growth outlook means the ECB seems set to cut the deposit rate by another 100bps this year, the continuing resilience of the US economy as well […]

Dollar extends gains post payrolls

Friday’s stronger than expected US jobs (payrolls) report for December saw the market pare back already battered down expectations for further Fed rate cuts, with another 25bps reduction now not fully priced until the final quarter of the year. This contributed to a jump in bond yields (led by short-maturity yields) and a further strengthening […]

Payrolls day in the US

Some semblance of relative calm returned to UK markets yesterday. Bond yields were broadly steady, equities recovered some ground, and sterling retreated from its lows against the dollar and the euro but remains close to them trading at about $1.23 and £0.8380 respectively this morning. The euro is little changed against the US currency, trading […]

The pound takes a pounding

UK markets were the focus of attention yesterday, with bond yields rising sharply, stocks selling off, and sterling weakening notably. There was no clear and obvious catalyst for these moves, though fiscal/budgetary and inflation concerns have been cited. In any case, the pound’s slide is continuing this morning. It is trading at around $1.2280 at […]

Dollar back in the ascendency

The dollar was back in the ascendency yesterday helped by stronger than expected US economic data, which also contributed to some slight paring back of already modest Fed rate cut expectations and higher bond yields. The euro and sterling are both down almost a cent from yesterday morning’s levels against the US currency, trading at […]

Euro, pound advance versus dollar

The euro and sterling have advanced further against the dollar as they continue to recover from last week’s lows. They are trading at about $1.0410 and $1.2540 respectively this morning, with EURGBP hovering around the £0.83 level. A newspaper report that Trump’s tariffs would be targeted at specific sectors/products rather than applied to all US goods […]