Author: Michael Crowley

Markets reverse course

Markets are responding negatively to Donald Trump’s overnight “State of The War” address, which contained nothing new really and reiterated that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. Oil prices are moving back up again – Brent crude is at around $108 this morning – bond yields are […]

Dollar on the back foot

Optimism that an end to the conflict in the Middle East may be in sight, following comments by Iran’s President that his country “has the necessary will to end this war”, triggered a decline in oil prices and a strong rally in US stocks into the New York close. Asian equities are also sharply higher […]

Some respite for bond markets

There was some respite for bond markets yesterday, with US Treasuries leading a decline in yields as the market priced back in some (small) chance of a Fed rate cut this year. The dollar generally remained on the front foot though, notwithstanding lower US yields, gaining ground against the euro and sterling. EURUSD is trading […]

Oil prices higher again

Oil prices are heading further north at the start of play this week. Brent crude has risen to over $115 per barrel, not far off its high in the conflict to date of almost $120. Asian equity markets are a good deal lower overnight (Japan’s Nikkei is off more than 3%), after US stocks closed […]

Bonds and stocks slide

Markets took their cue from higher oil prices with bond yields rising sharply and stocks selling off sharply during yesterday’s session. Perhaps with an eye on markets, Donald Trump has announced a ten-day extension to his ‘freeze’ on striking Iran’s power plants, saying talks with the country were going ‘very well’. Notably though, this has […]

Oil prices moving up again

It was a positive day in markets yesterday, with stocks higher and bond yields lower, amid some optimism regarding the chances of a ceasefire in the Middle East and a balanced assessment of the outlook for interest rates by ECB President, Christine Lagarde. However, doubts are emerging about the status of any talks between the […]

Calmer day in markets

It was a reasonably calm day in markets yesterday. Oil prices remained relatively steady and European gas prices edged down a bit further. The main currency pairs traded in fairly narrow ranges with the dollar ending marginally firmer relative to Monday’s closing levels. EURUSD and GBPUSD are currently trading at about $1.16 and $1.34 respectively, […]

Back from the brink for now

Trump’s about-turn (for now anyway) on his threat to strike Iran’s power plants drew a predictable enough response in markets. Oil and gas prices fell, rate hike expectations were pared back, bond yields eased, stocks rallied, and the dollar gave up some ground. The US currency is trading at about $1.16 and $1.34 vis-a-vis the […]

Markets souring

Markets ended the week on a sour note with bonds and equities both selling off on Friday as energy prices remained volatile and expectations for central bank rate hikes hardened further. It is a case of more of the same at the start of this week following Trump’s weekend threat to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants […]

Rate hike bets ratchet up

As expected, the ECB and Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at 2% and 3.75% respectively at yesterday’s meetings. Both said inflation is set to rise in the near-term on account of higher energy prices and warned of upside risks to the inflation outlook further out (with the BoE stating it is “prepared […]