Author: Michael Crowley

Euro sharply lower

The euro has sold off quite sharply following the EU-US trade deal reached over the weekend, amid much criticism from European business and elsewhere of the lopsided nature of the agreement (which ‘favoured’ the US), with the single currency falling to under $1.1550 against the dollar (from over $1.17) and to about £0.8650 against sterling […]

Euro lower despite EU-US trade deal

There’s been a muted enough market reaction so far to the weekend news that the EU and US have agreed a trade deal, including a 15% tariff, which is not too surprising given there had been talk over the latter part of last week that an agreement was in the offing. While there’s some uncertainty […]

Sterling on the back foot

The ECB left interest rates unchanged yesterday, as widely expected, with Christine Lagarde saying the central bank is now “on hold” and in “wait and see” mode as it awaits further developments in relation to the current EU-US trade talks in particular. The market has pared back expectations for any further policy easing though and […]

ECB to stay on hold amid talk of EU-US trade deal

The euro bounced off lows of not far off $1.17 against the dollar late yesterday after the FT reported that the EU is closing in on a trade deal with the US which would see it ‘accept’ a 15% tariff. It is trading at around $1.1770 this morning, and at about £0.8675 against sterling (largely […]

US agrees trade ‘deal’ with Japan

Japanese equity markets have advanced strongly overnight, up almost 4%, after Donald Trump announced that a trade ‘deal’ had been reached with Japan – “perhaps the largest deal ever made” – including a 15% tariff on exports to the US, lower than the 25% that was due to come into effect on August 1st. Japanese […]

Dollar on the back foot

The dollar was on the back foot yesterday falling against a broad range of currencies, though there didn’t appear to be any particular catalyst for the move lower. It shed more than 1% against the yen, as the latter regained some of the ground it had lost late last week ahead of elections in Japan […]

ECB to sit on its hands this Thursday

The euro retreated from Friday’s highs of around $1.1670 against the dollar after the FT reported that Trump is seeking to impose a tariff of 15-20% on the EU, greater than the 10% currently in place (albeit less than the 30% contained in the infamous letter), with the single currency ending lower for a second […]

Euro and pound firmer versus dollar

The euro and sterling are both firmer against the dollar this morning after Fed Governor Waller said the central bank should cut interest rates by 25bps at its meeting at the end of this month. They are trading at around $1.1625 and $1.3430 respectively this morning, off lows yesterday of around $1.1560 and $1.3375 which […]

Summertime madness!

There was drama in financial markets yesterday afternoon with US stocks, long-dated bonds, and the dollar all falling after White House sources said Donald Trump would fire Fed Chair Powell “soon”, though they recovered again after Trump denied he was planning to do so (albeit he said he had thought about it and had spoken […]

Dollar firmer after US inflation data

Yesterday’s US inflation data, which showed evidence of a pass-through of higher tariffs to consumer prices, contributed to a paring back of Fed rate cut expectations, an increase in US bond yields and a strengthening of the dollar. UK inflation data released just a short while ago were firmer than expected which is providing some […]