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    The Bulletin – January 2017

    Bond yields in the US have fallen back from the highs reached in the weeks following Donald Trump’s election in November and the dollar has given up ground against the euro. While the new President has certainly been busy since assuming office, markets are now awaiting concrete proposals in relation to his tax and spending […]

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    The Bulletin – December 2016

    2017 promises to be just as eventful as 2016, with perhaps another few surprises too! Later this month, Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the US and the markets (and the world) will be anxious to learn what follows; the UK government plans to trigger Article 50 by the end of March and so begin the process […]

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    The Bulletin – November 2016

    The election result in the US has triggered a rise in bond yields and a strengthening of the dollar, as the market sees the new administration implementing a ‘fiscal stimulus’ package to boost growth (and that will probably also lead to higher inflation). In addition, a pick up in economic activity in Q3 and continuing solid job […]

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    The Bulletin – October 2016

    The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting revealed that ‘several’ members believed an increase in interest rates would be appropriate ‘soon’. Subsequent Fed commentary points to the December meeting as the most likely date for such a move and the market is now attaching a more than 80% probability to a 25bps hike by the end of […]

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    The Bulletin – September 2016

    The Fed left interest rates unchanged in September albeit 3 of the 10 members of the committee voted for an increase of 25bps, a greater degree of dissent than is usual. The committee judged that the case for a rate hike ‘has strengthened’, but decided to keep policy on hold ‘for the time being’ as it awaits […]

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    The Bulletin – August 2016

    The Bank of England (BoE) has eased monetary policy in response to a weaker outlook for the UK economy following the Brexit vote in late June. It has cut interest rates by 25bps to 0.25%, reactivated its QE programme – it will purchase £70bn of assets over the coming months – and introduced a new funding scheme […]

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    The Bulletin – July 2016

    International equity markets have recovered well after falling sharply immediately following the Brexit vote in the UK, with the S&P 500 in the US setting a new all-time high in the process. Core government bond yields have also risen recently though they still remain below their pre-referendum levels. Survey data point to a weaker UK economy ahead and […]

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    The Bulletin – July 2016

    International equity markets have recovered well after falling sharply immediately following the Brexit vote in the UK, with the S&P 500 in the US setting a new all-time high in the process. Core government bond yields have also risen recently though they still remain below their pre-referendum levels. Survey data point to a weaker UK economy ahead and […]

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    The Bulletin – June 2016

    The vote to exit the EU in the UK referendum has prompted a predictable enough reaction in markets. Equities have fallen and core government bond yields have plunged on a flight to quality, while so-called ‘safe haven’ currencies – notably the Japanese yen – have appreciated. Sterling has weakened quite sharply, falling by 9% to 84p against the […]

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    The Bulletin – May 2016

    The Fed left interest rates unchanged when it met in April and the accompanying policy statement gave no indication about what action it might take in June. However, the minutes of the meeting published subsequently revealed that a rate hike next month would be appropriate if economic growth picked up in the second quarter and […]