• The Bulletin December 2017

    The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps for a third time in 2017 at its final meeting of the year in December, and indicated that three further quarter point hikes are likely to be warranted in 2018. It revised up its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.5%, largely on account of an assumed fiscal boost […]

  • The Bulletin November 2017

    The euro has recovered some ground against the dollar from the low point it reached following the October ECB meeting, though at around $1.18 it still remains off the highs of $1.21 it set in late September. High frequency data suggest the Euro area economy is growing quite strongly, and the labour market is continuing its steady […]

  • The Bulletin October 2017

    At its monetary policy meeting in late October, the ECB announced a 9 month extension of its QE programme to the end of September 2018 given continuing ‘muted’ inflation pressures in the Euro area. It will, though, reduce the pace of its bond purchases to €30bn per month starting in January (from €60bn currently), taking into account […]

  • The Bulletin September 2017

    Sterling and the dollar have recovered ground against the euro over the past month, strengthening to 88p and $1.17 respectively from recent lows of circa 93p and $1.21. Supporting both has been the prospect of a near-term increase in UK and US interest rates. The biggest surprise in this regard, perhaps, has come from the […]

  • The Bulletin August 2017

    The euro has continued to strengthen against the dollar and sterling over the past month to trade at $1.19 and 92p respectively. While the ECB has said the currency’s recent appreciation in part reflects ‘changes in the relative fundamentals’ in the Euro area, notably a stronger than expected pick up in economic growth, it has expressed some […]

  • The Bulletin July 2017

    The euro has appreciated further against the dollar over the past month, rising by almost 3 cents to trade at $1.17. The latest gains come after Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, did little to push back on the currency’s rise when given an opportunity recently to do so. All else equal, its gains […]

  • The Bulletin June 2017

    The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps at its June meeting, and signalled one more increase is likely this year followed by 3 further hikes in 2018. It also outlined a plan to reduce the size of its balance sheet, which it said could commence relatively soon. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s MPC kept interest rates unchanged […]

  • The Bulletin May 2017

    The euro has strengthened against the dollar in recent weeks, breaking out of the $1.04 to $1.08 range it had been in since the start of 2017. Much though probably not all of this reflects general dollar weakness, as political controversy surrounding the Trump administration has weighed on the US currency. This also led to a brief sell […]

  • The Bulletin April 2017

    The UK PM’s surprise decision to call a general election for June 8 prompted a jump in sterling to a 9-month high of 83.5p against the euro, although it gave up some of these gains following the result of the 1st round of voting in the French presidential election. This showed the independent centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, […]

  • The Bulletin March 2017

    The euro has strengthened against the dollar over the past month and threatened to break out of the $1.04 to $1.08 range it has been in since the start of 2017 (it did very briefly rise to $1.09 before falling back again). A number of factors have contributed to the move up. French bond yield […]