• The Bulletin May 2017

    The euro has strengthened against the dollar in recent weeks, breaking out of the $1.04 to $1.08 range it had been in since the start of 2017. Much though probably not all of this reflects general dollar weakness, as political controversy surrounding the Trump administration has weighed on the US currency. This also led to a brief sell […]

  • The Bulletin April 2017

    The UK PM’s surprise decision to call a general election for June 8 prompted a jump in sterling to a 9-month high of 83.5p against the euro, although it gave up some of these gains following the result of the 1st round of voting in the French presidential election. This showed the independent centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, […]

  • The Bulletin March 2017

    The euro has strengthened against the dollar over the past month and threatened to break out of the $1.04 to $1.08 range it has been in since the start of 2017 (it did very briefly rise to $1.09 before falling back again). A number of factors have contributed to the move up. French bond yield […]

  • The Bulletin – February 2017

    While markets still await details of the new US administration’s economic policies, the Fed is re-entering the scene sooner than might have been expected. After waiting for a year before raising interest rates for a second time last December, it seems to be gearing up to hike again later this month judging by recent public […]

  • The Bulletin – January 2017

    Bond yields in the US have fallen back from the highs reached in the weeks following Donald Trump’s election in November and the dollar has given up ground against the euro. While the new President has certainly been busy since assuming office, markets are now awaiting concrete proposals in relation to his tax and spending […]

  • The Bulletin – December 2016

    2017 promises to be just as eventful as 2016, with perhaps another few surprises too! Later this month, Donald Trump assumes the presidency of the US and the markets (and the world) will be anxious to learn what follows; the UK government plans to trigger Article 50 by the end of March and so begin the process […]

  • The Bulletin – November 2016

    The election result in the US has triggered a rise in bond yields and a strengthening of the dollar, as the market sees the new administration implementing a ‘fiscal stimulus’ package to boost growth (and that will probably also lead to higher inflation). In addition, a pick up in economic activity in Q3 and continuing solid job […]

  • The Bulletin – October 2016

    The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting revealed that ‘several’ members believed an increase in interest rates would be appropriate ‘soon’. Subsequent Fed commentary points to the December meeting as the most likely date for such a move and the market is now attaching a more than 80% probability to a 25bps hike by the end of […]

  • The Bulletin – September 2016

    The Fed left interest rates unchanged in September albeit 3 of the 10 members of the committee voted for an increase of 25bps, a greater degree of dissent than is usual. The committee judged that the case for a rate hike ‘has strengthened’, but decided to keep policy on hold ‘for the time being’ as it awaits […]

  • The Bulletin – August 2016

    The Bank of England (BoE) has eased monetary policy in response to a weaker outlook for the UK economy following the Brexit vote in late June. It has cut interest rates by 25bps to 0.25%, reactivated its QE programme – it will purchase £70bn of assets over the coming months – and introduced a new funding scheme […]